Yes, and I know what went wrong - the numbers I have are for the period since the switch phase I-phase II, that is February, while the 130,000 I got from the Statistics page is from the period since the phase II-phase III transition, that is, July.
There are 226,000 old article revisions in the database, which includes all changes made since Phase II, and about 9,600 articles that have never been edited (and are not redirects), so that's about 235,000 total edits. About 190,000 of those are in the main article namespace.
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