I'm trying to get a rough estimate of the number of uploads to expect for WLM-US. One way would be to look at last year's first day total uploads and compare it to last years total uploads for the month (~169,000 overall). So if the ratio was 1:50, I'd just multiply the 1st day uploads in the US by 50. Yesterday (1st 24 hours) we had 615 uploads so if 50 is the right multiplier, we'd estimate about 31,000. Some might say 30 is the right multiplier (30 days in a month), but 37 would estimate that the last week gets twice as many uploads. Does anybody have a real number from last year? It's fairly important to estimate the total uploads so that we can mobilize the right number of people for tasks such as reviewing the pix, placing them in the lists, and pre-jury screening. So far I've been using the standard scientific method of pulling a number out of my wazoo ("US is almost as big as Europe ==> 100,000") Any help appreciated. Pete Ekman User:Smallbones
Lodewijk reported last year "more than 2000 uploads in day 1". So the ratio would be 1:84!
In a paper made by WM-ES you can see a figure with uploads per day: http://digithum.uoc.edu/ojs/index.php/digithum/article/view/n14-rodriguez-go...
[1] http://lists.wikimedia.org/pipermail/wikilovesmonuments/2011-September/00125...
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Date: Sun, 2 Sep 2012 08:08:58 -0400 From: pdekman@gmail.com To: wikilovesmonuments@lists.wikimedia.org Subject: [Wiki Loves Monuments] first day to total uploads ratio
I'm trying to get a rough estimate of the number of uploads to expect for WLM-US. One way would be to look at last year's first day total uploads and compare it to last years total uploads for the month (~169,000 overall). So if the ratio was 1:50, I'd just multiply the 1st day uploads in the US by 50. Yesterday (1st 24 hours) we had 615 uploads so if 50 is the right multiplier, we'd estimate about 31,000. Some might say 30 is the right multiplier (30 days in a month), but 37 would estimate that the last week gets twice as many uploads. Does anybody have a real number from last year? It's fairly important to estimate the total uploads so that we can mobilize the right number of people for tasks such as reviewing the pix, placing them in the lists, and pre-jury screening. So far I've been using the standard scientific method of pulling a number out of my wazoo ("US is almost as big as Europe ==> 100,000") Any help appreciated. Pete Ekman User:Smallbones
Wiki Loves Monuments mailing list WikiLovesMonuments@lists.wikimedia.org https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/wikilovesmonuments http://www.wikilovesmonuments.org
On 02.09.2012 14:08, Peter Ekman wrote:
It's fairly important to estimate the total uploads so that we can mobilize the right number of people for tasks such as reviewing the pix, placing them in the lists, and pre-jury screening. So far I've been using the standard scientific method of pulling a number out of my wazoo ("US is almost as big as Europe ==> 100,000")
It's difficult to make a comparison because we had only two days of contest and because the number of countries is higher than last year.
In addition last year it was the first time of a larger participation, so the users experienced the event and they were able to understand the rules. So I suppose that a lot of participants had kept the images in their hard-disks waiting WLM.
For instance I took a lot of photos before September and wait WLM to upload them.
Anyway don't wait a small number of photos. I think that over a specific level "more than thousand" doesn't make a difference.
I'll agree that any estimate at this point is bound to be off - but all estimates are going to be off. I'll strongly disagree that we can't come up with some reasonable estimate that's better than my wazoo estimate. And I need some estimate. What would be perfect for me is a percentage uploaded each day for the full contest last year. That way I can track how well the estimate is working and update it everyday.
Pete
On Sunday, September 2, 2012, Ilario Valdelli wrote:
On 02.09.2012 14:08, Peter Ekman wrote:
It's fairly important to estimate the total uploads so that we can mobilize the right number of people for tasks such as reviewing the pix, placing them in the lists, and pre-jury screening. So far I've been using the standard scientific method of pulling a number out of my wazoo ("US is almost as big as Europe ==> 100,000")
It's difficult to make a comparison because we had only two days of contest and because the number of countries is higher than last year.
In addition last year it was the first time of a larger participation, so the users experienced the event and they were able to understand the rules. So I suppose that a lot of participants had kept the images in their hard-disks waiting WLM.
For instance I took a lot of photos before September and wait WLM to upload them.
Anyway don't wait a small number of photos. I think that over a specific level "more than thousand" doesn't make a difference.
-- Ilario Valdelli Wikimedia CH Verein zur Förderung Freien Wissens Association pour l’avancement des connaissances libre Associazione per il sostegno alla conoscenza libera Switzerland - 8008 Zürich Tel: +41764821371 http://www.wikimedia.ch
Hello, I think the 1:80 ratio should be our high estimate a 1:50 the low estimate. For US I would estimate 30k-50k. I think Germany, France, India and Spain also will go up to around 30k+total number will probably end somewhere between 300 and 500k. If you want 1 number estimates go with 1:65, I expect the peak at the end to not be 3.5 times higher as last year, also we've started in a weekend. Mvg, Bas Date: Sun, 2 Sep 2012 09:16:32 -0400 From: pdekman@gmail.com To: valdelli@gmail.com CC: wikilovesmonuments@lists.wikimedia.org Subject: Re: [Wiki Loves Monuments] first day to total uploads ratio
I'll agree that any estimate at this point is bound to be off - but all estimates are going to be off. I'll strongly disagree that we can't come up with some reasonable estimate that's better than my wazoo estimate. And I need some estimate. What would be perfect for me is a percentage uploaded each day for the full contest last year. That way I can track how well the estimate is working and update it everyday.
Pete
On Sunday, September 2, 2012, Ilario Valdelli wrote: On 02.09.2012 14:08, Peter Ekman wrote:
It's fairly important to estimate the total uploads so that we can
mobilize the right number of people for tasks such as reviewing the
pix, placing them in the lists, and pre-jury screening. So far I've
been using the standard scientific method of pulling a number out of
my wazoo ("US is almost as big as Europe ==> 100,000")
It's difficult to make a comparison because we had only two days of contest and because the number of countries is higher than last year.
In addition last year it was the first time of a larger participation, so the users experienced the event and they were able to understand the rules. So I suppose that a lot of participants had kept the images in their hard-disks waiting WLM.
For instance I took a lot of photos before September and wait WLM to upload them.
Anyway don't wait a small number of photos. I think that over a specific level "more than thousand" doesn't make a difference.
Peter,
From here you should be able to get the numbers and do the math to your likings: http://www.wikilovesmonuments.org.pt/tools/stats/wlmchart.php?reload=0&c...
(URL probably wrapped)
However, let me reinforce Maarten suggestion: just relax and let it flow for a while..
-NT
Em 02-09-2012 14:16, Peter Ekman escreveu:
I'll agree that any estimate at this point is bound to be off - but all estimates are going to be off. I'll strongly disagree that we can't come up with some reasonable estimate that's better than my wazoo estimate. And I need some estimate. What would be perfect for me is a percentage uploaded each day for the full contest last year. That way I can track how well the estimate is working and update it everyday.
Pete
On Sunday, September 2, 2012, Ilario Valdelli wrote:
On 02.09.2012 14:08, Peter Ekman wrote: It's fairly important to estimate the total uploads so that we can mobilize the right number of people for tasks such as reviewing the pix, placing them in the lists, and pre-jury screening. So far I've been using the standard scientific method of pulling a number out of my wazoo ("US is almost as big as Europe ==> 100,000") It's difficult to make a comparison because we had only two days of contest and because the number of countries is higher than last year. In addition last year it was the first time of a larger participation, so the users experienced the event and they were able to understand the rules. So I suppose that a lot of participants had kept the images in their hard-disks waiting WLM. For instance I took a lot of photos before September and wait WLM to upload them. Anyway don't wait a small number of photos. I think that over a specific level "more than thousand" doesn't make a difference. -- Ilario Valdelli Wikimedia CH Verein zur Förderung Freien Wissens Association pour l’avancement des connaissances libre Associazione per il sostegno alla conoscenza libera Switzerland - 8008 Zürich Tel: +41764821371 http://www.wikimedia.ch
Wiki Loves Monuments mailing list WikiLovesMonuments@lists.wikimedia.org https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/wikilovesmonuments http://www.wikilovesmonuments.org
On Sun, Sep 2, 2012 at 3:08 PM, Peter Ekman wrote:
I'm trying to get a rough estimate of the number of uploads to expect for WLM-US. One way would be to look at last year's first day total uploads and compare it to last years total uploads for the month (~169,000 overall). So if the ratio was 1:50, I'd just multiply the 1st day uploads in the US by 50.
As other said, just relax and wait a bit more. We can't make an accurate estimation, this year the first day was a Saturday, last year it was a Thursday. You will probably see the a difference of uploads form a holiday to a work day (if is up or down it may vary from community to community, but there will be a difference). Also, you will see the upload progression is not linear, in my country it accelerated hugely in the last week and the last night of the last day was huge, the progression by week was like this: http://nicubunu.ro/pictures/wlmro-graph-basic.png I would say: make a conservative estimation and let the community surprise you in a positive way :)
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