Just a short remark: the most statistically explicative parameter for
Wikipedia activity is not the number of internet connections but GDP (except
for English and Chinese projects which exhibit singular behavior). Perhaps
you could retry the analysis using GDP and find some more countries where
chapters are achievable.
Sorry for not providing references. This comes from a not yet published
research work that applies reasonable hypothesis to transfer more than 20
parameters from country data into language data and then apply statistical
methods to search for correlations between those data and size of Wikipedia
projects.
== Searching for chapters ==
This analysis is about where to search for new Wikimedia chapters. It
may be useful to the ChapCom and Board, but the other intention is to
encourage Wikimedians from those countries to try to form their
chapters, because it is achievable.