On 14/01/14 16:08, Marc A. Pelletier wrote:
On 01/13/2014 11:56 PM, Tim Starling wrote:
Reversing the decline in editor population has been a major strategic priority of WMF for many years.
My own opinion about how that decline isn't nearly as bad as some claim is well known. But also entirely besides the point: I was referring to that specific statement of yours:
"A linear regression on the edit rate from that time predicts death of the project at around 2030."
I kept expecting you to add "Netcraft confirms it" at some point. :-)
Well, obviously I extrapolated a model to the point of absurdity, but I think it's better to derive a model from data than to make predictions based on unsubstantiated hope.
In my post at 05:19 UTC, I assumed a stable edit rate, which I thought was an optimistic upper bound. But Matt thought that it was actually pessimistic? So I gave an example of a model that I consider to be pessimistic, for comparison. I don't think either model is realistic, I think the most likely reality lies somewhere in between.
-- Tim Starling