... here are a
couple illustrations of some reasons I
believe a ten year extrapolation of
Foundation fundraising
is completely reasonable:
http://imgur.com/a/mV72T
Words tend to be more useful than contextless images.
I meant that the very sharply declining cost of solar (and wind)
energy, and the extent to which renewable energy is becoming fungible
-- see e.g.
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Wikipedia:Reference_desk/Science…bles.
-- is likely to have a profoundly positive economic effect in both the
developed and developing world, especially over the next ten years;
and that the rate at which the most populous areas of the world are
growing in terms of income per capita will combine to support a simple
extrapolation of the Foundation's fundraising success. The very rapid
per capita income growth in Asia and Africa should last for 15 to 20
years at least.
And I don't see any downward pressure on the ability of the Foundation
to raise money; especially if transitioning to maintaining existing
content is successful. That is why I think this is so important:
That is equivalent to a general computer-aided
instruction
system, with the side effects of both improving the encyclopedia
and making counter-vandalism bots more accurate. As an
anonymous crowdsourced review system based on consensus
voting instead of editorial judgement, it leaves the Foundation
immunized with their safe harbor provisions regarding content
control intact.
It's also not worth 3 billion dollars (no offence, Aaron!) as
evidenced by the fact that it can be established with <20k.
I agree it can be set up with very little money, and I am completely
thrilled beyond words that work is proceeding on it.
However, once it is established, it's impossible to say whether
volunteers can sustain it at useful levels. I think it's almost
impossible that volunteers will keep it up with even half of major
edits. However, again, paying people to score revisions (including
trial null revisions against existing content, for example, that
editors could flag as being out of date, for example) would be like
paying them to enrich their own education and improve the encyclopedia
and anti-vandalism bots all at the same time. That is a fantastic
opportunity for research and development.
... This is not a discussion for research-l
On the contrary, please see e.g.
http://www.wikisym.org/os2014-files/proceedings/p609.pdf
this Foundation-sponsored IEG effort can serve as a confirmatory
replication of that prior work.
... time is better spent doing research with the
resources
we have now....
I wish someone would please replicate my measurement of the variance
in the distribution of fundraising results using the editor-submitted
banners from 2008-9, and explain to the fundraising team that
distribution implies they can do a whole lot better than sticking with
the spiel which degrades Foundation employees by implying they
typically spend $3 or £3 on coffee. (Although I wouldn't discount the
possibility that some donors feel good about sending Foundation
employers to boutique coffee shops.)
We know donor message- and banner-fatigue exists as a strong effect
which limits the useful life of fundraising approaches in some cases,
so they have to keep trying to keep up. When are they going to test
the remainder of the editors' submissions?