On 05/05/06, Alphax (Wikipedia email) alphasigmax@gmail.com wrote:

More to the point, the outcome of the Monty Hall problem is "common sense" once you understand it. Denying that staying will give you a better chance of winning when there are 9999998 doors with goats behind them open, when you've had it explained to you, is /not/ common sense.

Fwiw, I explain it like this: "Did you know what was behind any of the doors when you made your first guess? Do you know now? Do you prefer uninformed decisions?"

Steve