On Mon, Feb 16, 2009 at 3:40 PM, Thomas Dalton <thomas.dalton(a)gmail.com> wrote:
I'm just going by the statistics, I'm not
making any judgements based
on anything else. At the moment, we seem to be following a logistic
curve which levels out at around 3.5 million articles in around
2013-14. (It's asymptotic, but it will be pretty much there by then.)
So far, "low-hanging fruit" has dominated the growth pattern of
Wikipedia. Rather than approaching a horizontal asymptote, we're
probably approaching a stable growth rate (i.e., an oblique
asymptote), since it's obvious that the number of potential articles
yet to be written is not the limiting factor. Rather we're limited by
a product of potential articles and users interested in those
articles.
But statistically it's probably impossible to know that just from the
data, since low-hanging fruit swamps longer-term trends.
-Sage (User:Ragesoss)