Thomas Dalton wrote:
2009/2/16 Sage Ross ragesoss+wikipedia@gmail.com:
On Mon, Feb 16, 2009 at 3:40 PM, Thomas Dalton thomas.dalton@gmail.com wrote:
I'm just going by the statistics, I'm not making any judgements based on anything else. At the moment, we seem to be following a logistic curve which levels out at around 3.5 million articles in around 2013-14. (It's asymptotic, but it will be pretty much there by then.)
So far, "low-hanging fruit" has dominated the growth pattern of Wikipedia. Rather than approaching a horizontal asymptote, we're probably approaching a stable growth rate (i.e., an oblique asymptote), since it's obvious that the number of potential articles yet to be written is not the limiting factor. Rather we're limited by a product of potential articles and users interested in those articles.
But statistically it's probably impossible to know that just from the data, since low-hanging fruit swamps longer-term trends.
I think we passed to point where low-hanging fruit was a major factor some time ago (probably round about when we started to level out, although it obviously depends on your definitions). I think in a few years the vast majority of existing topics that we want to include will have at least stubs about them. There will be new topics being created all the time, so growth will never stop completely (there will always be a new series of Big Brother to write about!). We might expand our ideas of what kind of articles are acceptable (ie. relax our notability guidelines), but that's the only way we are going to maintain any significant level of article creation about pre-existing topics.
I think that this was bound to happen; any venture based on describing the known universe has an inherent limit in any case, and it seems obvious that once you've reached some level of coverage, what happens then is more determined by the pace of real life events. However, like software, it's arguable that an encyclopedia is never really finished. Good Articles may be good, and Featured Articles better, but something will always come along to require additions. As for relaxing notability guidelines, I think we very largely get it about right at present, and opening a can of worms does not commend itself to me as a policy.