On Tue, Jul 14, 2009 at 10:07 AM, Ian
Woollard<ian.woollard(a)gmail.com>
wrote:
It's looking to me like 3.5 million is about the plateau, since the
curve is bang on that, but we might make 4 million *eventually*.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Modelling_Wikipedia%27s_growth#Logis…
I don't think the bell-shaped articles/day curve of the logistic model
is a good description of the trends. Since article creation peaked in
2007, the falloff in article creation has been much slower than than
ramp-up. Rather than falling back to close to zero articles/day over
the next 5 years or so (as the logistic model predicts), it looks like
we're heading to an asymptote of (I'm eyeballing it here) around 1000
articles/day. I expect 4 million articles a lot sooner than
*eventually*. ;)
We're already down to 1000/day growth on the unsmoothed graph as we
fall off one of the two biannual growth peaks.
Looks like the Wikipedia is still bang-on for 3.5 million articles.