There's been too much discussion about this one point, so I'll just say one last thing, and then shut up until the dust clears.
Look at the survey quoted in this article:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change
It asks a number of questions. Answers are scored numerically, then averaged.
The scale of answers ranges is:
1 = agree . . . 7 = disagree
I would venture to say that any question with an average (i.e., "mean") of 2 or less indicates a consensus of agreement, and an average of 6 or higher indicates a consensus of disagreement. I think everyone on this list is with me, so far.
But what about scores between 2.0 and 6.0? Okay, I'll be nice and even grant that 2.0 indicates stong enough agreement for consensus, and even 2.5 -- but at 3.0 the 'consensus' is less than complete, and really anything between 3.5 and 4.5 can't be called anything other than a 50-50 split.
So let's take another look at the survey. What is each question, and what is its average (or "mean") answer? Which questions indicate a consensus, and which a "near consensus", and which a "split leaning one way" and which a "50-50 split"?
You tell me what are your criteria for judging survey results, and I'll meekly abide by them.
Humbly and peacefully,
Uncle Ed
-----Original Message----- From: Poor, Edmund W. Sent: Tuesday, November 25, 2003 9:22 AM To: 'English Wikipedia' Subject: Surveys have been taken (was: William Connolley no longer neutral contributor)
Now if someone did a survey, and 95% of scientists agreed on a point,
we could arguably call that a "consensus" (as we have done on evolution: 95% of all scientists (not just biologist) surveyed support Darwin's theory, and well over 99% of biologists.
Another sneaky tactic; it's unlikely anyone will survey scientists about global warning, so you can safely say "we have to be open-minded
until then".
Stan, this is simply incorrect. There have been at least 2 different GW surveys, and one of them was added to the Wikipedia by someone other than me:
The survey shows an even split among scientists on whether the GW theory is true. This is far from the "consensus" that some GW theory proponents claim exists.
The fact that a survey contradicts the political views of the Clinton administration and of the UN climate panel, should be in the Wikipedia.
...unless, of course, someone genuinely feels that a mean score of 4.8 on a scale from 1 (agree) and 7 (disagree) represents a "consensus" of agreement!
Uncle Ed