On 10/2/05, DF dragons_flight@yahoo.com wrote:
Jni is something of a special case. In 117 closes, he never closed as Keep. Hence at some empirical level, his threshold might equally well be anything below his weakest consensus. The algorithm being used picks a number in the middle of the many equivalent values, so it may be skewing a lot lower than is sensible. A more useful column to look at in cases like this is the "Est. Deviation", this shows how many AFDs he might have been expected to close differently had he been using a 63.5% value which is the average. For Jni, that value is 2, meaning that he closed as delete roughly two AFDs with less than 63.5% votes for deletion.
Thing is, some admins specialise in early closes, and some specialise in late closes--you choose which day log to process and depending on its position in the list of day logs you'll find yourself processing old or new listings. The early closers will have a very high number of straight keep or delete closes (mostly deletes), the late closers will have a fairly high number of no consensus keep closes.
I'm shocked at the extremely low figure at which the sample seemed to close with delete. 63% is absolutely not to be confused with consensus.
On the other hand, 75% of closes beingdelete is a much lower hit rate than I expected before I went and examined a few completed day logs myself. I naively expected the delete rate to be around 90% or more.