On 14/07/2009, Sage Ross ragesoss+wikipedia@gmail.com wrote:
I don't think the bell-shaped articles/day curve of the logistic model is a good description of the trends. Since article creation peaked in 2007, the falloff in article creation has been much slower than than ramp-up. Rather than falling back to close to zero articles/day over the next 5 years or so (as the logistic model predicts), it looks like we're heading to an asymptote of (I'm eyeballing it here) around 1000 articles/day. I expect 4 million articles a lot sooner than *eventually*. ;)
I don't see any evidence for an asymptote at all yet.
We're only about ~1300 per day now, and the trend is clearly downwards, on a *log* graph of *percentage* growth against time it's a straightish line downwards, and the size of the wiki seems to be plateauing; percentage growth is a quarter what it was two years ago, and the wiki is only 1/3 bigger.
IMO we're probably going to be under a 1000 per day by Christmas. If we do manage 4 million I don't think it will be in the next 4 years.
-Sage