On 16/02/2011, Carcharoth carcharothwp@googlemail.com wrote:
I came across this interesting essay:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Modelling_Wikipedia_extended_growth
It tries to project to the year 2025!
And fails spectacularly. The extended growth model seems pretty inaccurate, very over-optimistic:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enwikipediagrowthcomparison.PNG
That graph hasn't been updated recently, but other graphs show that the Gompertz model is still tracking about as well as any simple model could do:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:EnwikipediagrowthGom.PNG
although even that is looking perhaps very slightly pessimistic, but it's too early to be absolutely sure.
But we can certainly I think, say with some justification, that the extended growth model is significantly off the mark.
Carcharoth