Hi Folks,
TLDR:
Results from analysis of new beta header
- Mobile beta still does not have sufficient volume or stability for meaningful time-comparison experiments. - Rough numbers I was able to get (highly suspect), *suggest* that - the new header did not have a meaningful impact on either search or main menu clicks - There was a rise in opt-outs, but it started almost a week before the change (http://mobile-reportcard.wmflabs.org/, use table view) - Data and tables used here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oyTdP04IoYztG7ZNsJQ_0R9wjG8NOGU8tcq-iawqo8s/edit#gid=864984277
I ran the data from the new beta header, which was designed to promote main menu discovery by showing the menu anytime someone clicked in the header. We knew it was a confusing experience and made it harder to search, but since it was almost built before I joined the team, I asked the team to promote it to beta anyway so that we could see what, if any, the impact was.
Context:
Current: [image: Inline image 2] Behaviors:
- click search, begin typing immediately - click hamburger menu, see main menu
Test. Clicking anywhere on the header, including search, will now surface the main menu: [image: Inline image 1]
Behaviors:
- click anywhere in the heading and see both search and main menu. Click search again to begin typing
[image: Inline image 1]
Hypothesis:
- Main menu item clicks will increase - Search clicks will decrease
I was personally curious to see how much we could drive main menu clicks--would increased exposure improve visitation? How much would an extra click hurt search? These answers would help us as we made decisions for a new navigation. For all of the below, I looked at English Wikipedia only.
Complications/caveats:
- beta traffic is low (~500 search clicks a day, ~80 settings clicks before the change,) and fluctuates, so impacts measured should be taken with a grain of salt - pageview traffic is hard to derive, so I looked at an hour each day and used that as the index against which to measure actions, for stable pvs I also sampled 1/1000 - there is a period of missing main-menu click data whose impact is fully over by 7/11, so I could only measure the 4 days before the change. PV data seems limited to a 90 day window (at least the method I am using to query) - after the change, there was no measurement of overall 'header' clicks.
Results TLDR:
- when indexed against pageviews, search results did not decreaes! - surprisingly, main menu clicks did not have consistent improvements--largely - Home: +12% - Nearby: -6% (anomalous spike just before) - Random: +101% (there is clearly 1 day here with a major spike--just an outlier) - Collections: - 20% - Settings: + 27% (to change out of beta?) - pageviews decreased significantly over this period, however (25% over the two comparison windows). So overall actions did decrease. How to interpret the results, one has to know why pageviews decreased-- - Certainly one component is looking at partial weeks and different days of the week. Weekends see mobile spikes and the first portion is a weekend and the second was not. - Did they decrease because of a natural population decay from our pushing more people into beta? Maybe. - Did they decrease because people did not like the header. Unlikely--we see an opt out of beta jump that starts a few days before the change was promoted.
[image: Inline image 13]
(the 3 digit numbers below are dates:
Here is an example of the total number of actions during this time--a comparison to all traffic (which I dub 'stable') helps identify when a spike is or is not a beta artifact, but ultimately I ended up using pageviews as that is more relevant:
[image: Inline image 7]
[image: Inline image 10]
Here are clicks on "Home" in the main menu:
[image: Inline image 11]
Here is search: [image: Inline image 12]
The jumps you see in early May are from a banner campaign we ran to increase beta users so that we could run meaningful quantitative analysis.
Conclusion:
- We need to either increase beta users, a/b test, or test in stable more (which would also mean a/b testing on a small % of the population) - Increased exposure to the main menu in it's current state does not appear to have a strong positive impact on engagement. One might argue that this has a great deal to do with an awkward transition, but it is hard to tell with the noise. - Search was seemingly not impacted by a trivial extra step--people are possibly more resilient than we think.
On Thu, 2015-08-13 at 10:07 -0700, Jon Katz wrote:
We need to either increase beta users, a/b test, or test in stable more (which would also mean a/b testing on a small % of the population)
Thanks, Jon for the write up. I strongly believe this is the way forward for our future experiments. Comparing beta results to stable doesn't make much sense.
Baha
Thanks, Baha.
I think the following reinforces your point, but just to clarify, the only reason I compared beta to stable was to identify if any of the anomalies we saw in beta (decrease in beta pvs, huge spike in 'random' clicks) were artifacts of beta adoption or were attributable to normal traffic trends.
On Thu, Aug 13, 2015 at 10:42 AM, Bahodir Mansurov bmansurov@wikimedia.org wrote:
On Thu, 2015-08-13 at 10:07 -0700, Jon Katz wrote:
We need to either increase beta users, a/b test, or test in stable more (which would also mean a/b testing on a small % of the population)
Thanks, Jon for the write up. I strongly believe this is the way forward for our future experiments. Comparing beta results to stable doesn't make much sense.
Baha
Thanks Jon, lots of interesting stuff even with such little amount of data. Are we planning to take this out of beta now?
On Thu, Aug 13, 2015 at 11:35 AM, Jon Katz jkatz@wikimedia.org wrote:
Thanks, Baha.
I think the following reinforces your point, but just to clarify, the only reason I compared beta to stable was to identify if any of the anomalies we saw in beta (decrease in beta pvs, huge spike in 'random' clicks) were artifacts of beta adoption or were attributable to normal traffic trends.
On Thu, Aug 13, 2015 at 10:42 AM, Bahodir Mansurov < bmansurov@wikimedia.org> wrote:
On Thu, 2015-08-13 at 10:07 -0700, Jon Katz wrote:
We need to either increase beta users, a/b test, or test in stable more (which would also mean a/b testing on a small % of the population)
Thanks, Jon for the write up. I strongly believe this is the way forward for our future experiments. Comparing beta results to stable doesn't make much sense.
Baha
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