Thanks, everybody, for the comments.
I've updated my post to incorporate many of the responses here. In particular, I've edited my description of what the numbers mean, and posited shift in traffic from non-mobile to mobile as the most likely explanation of the decline.
I'll make a few more changes this weekend.
Vipul
On Thu, Mar 26, 2015 at 10:55 AM, Lane Rasberry lane@bluerasberry.com wrote:
Hello,
Thanks Vipul for making http://wikipediaviews.org/. I help health organizations share information from experts on Wikipedia, and the primary motivation for experts contributing is using Wikipedia as the most efficient channel to deliver health information to as many people as possible. It is my opinion that by publishing good information about the nature of Wikipedia's audience and their pageviews, it becomes easier to persuade experts and high-quality contributors to share information on Wikipedia.
Here are some thoughts I had as I read your long report. These might be complicated questions.
- At what rate, if any, is the global number of Internet search
queries changing? 2. To what extent is it a base assumption that changes in the global number of Internet search queries should cause a proportional change in the number of Wikipedia pageviews? Like for example, if 10% more searches on Google, Bing, etc happen, then should there be 10% more Wikipedia page views? 3. What is the breakdown for the sources incoming traffic for any given Wikipedia pageview? Where are people before they come to any given Wikipedia article? Who already has tried to answer this question?
I would be interested to know the extent to which Wikipedia's pageviews are being held stable, as you say, by traffic to new articles. Like Erik said, I intuitively would not think that traffic to new articles would be so much, but also, in all the examples of old articles you are giving the traffic is going down for old articles. Assuming that total number of pageviews site wide is not decreasing, and assuming that the pageviews for old articles is decreasing, then that can only mean that the traffic to new articles is making up for the traffic loses to the older articles.
Vipul, thanks again for making WikipediaViews.org. Really, that website saves me a lot of time and really helps my outreach work.
yours,
On Thu, Mar 26, 2015 at 1:17 PM, Vipul Naik vipulnaik1@gmail.com wrote:
Eric: Thanks for the information! Do you know of any tools that can be used to do something like what stats.grok.se does, but including mobile traffic? And/or can stats.grok.se be modified to switch to using mobile traffic (perhaps optionally, or with a separate URL/subdomain so as to stay separate from the existing stats)?
Reguyla: Thanks for the suggestions. In particular, do you have reasons to believe that mirror sites have increased in popularity or search result ranking in recent years? My impression was that Google is getting better at downgrading and not showing pure mirror sites of Wikipedia.
Vipul
On Thu, Mar 26, 2015 at 10:08 AM, Erik Zachte ezachte@wikimedia.org wrote:
Hi Vipul,
First, I find it quite interesting to see your extensive work on aggregating stats.grok.se data!
I can see how that fills a gap in our tool set.
A few comments on your extensive analysis (full page version):
=Media coverage=
You say "The decline received news coverage in January 2014, beginning with Wikipediocracy http://wikipediocracy.com/2014/01/06/googles-knowledge-graph-killing-wikipedia/ and followed by the Daily Dot http://www.dailydot.com/news/wikipedia-falling-traffic-meaning/, The Register http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/01/13/google_stabs_wikipedia_in_the_front/, and The Examiner http://www.examiner.com/article/wikipedia-page-views-downhill-slide …"
The sites you mention present charts which at the time only showed non-mobile traffic. After this issue on apparent decline was raised, those charts were updated to also show mobile traffic. But these obsolete versions of the charts keep coming back to haunt us ;-)
See recent charts see e.g. http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/ReportCardTopWikis.htm (last chart per language)
In some languages mobile traffic almost equals non-mobile traffic, e.g.
Japanese http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/SummaryJA.htm and
Arabic http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/SummaryAR.htm
=Stats.grok.se=
Your tracking of historic page views for a set of pages about colors unfortunately suffers from the fact that WMF page view dumps did not contain mobile views either until relatively recently.
In September 2014 a separate set of page view dumps was released: https://dumps.wikimedia.org/other/pagecounts-all-sites/2014/ which does include mobile and zero traffic.
However it seems from http://stats.grok.se/about those extended dumps are not used at stats.grok.se even now.
=New content=
You say "The reason that overall pageview counts for Wikipedia haven’t declined much between 2013 and 2014 is *the creation of new pages*. In other words, the growth in views based on the creation of new pages is the main factor compensating for what would otherwise be an even steeper decline."
Frankly, purely untuitively I find that hard to believe, much of the new content will reach few users initially, as we accumulated such a wide range of topics, and depth of coverage, already in earlier years. (of course there are new pages that go trending imediately)
This could be tested by removing all titles from a recent page views dump which also occur above some threshold say a year ago, and tally what remains.
Using monthly aggregated files would make this more reliable. http://dumps.wikimedia.org/other/pagecounts-ez/merged/
This would be a rough assesment, order of magnitude, for views to new articles only.
Page view dumps also contain non existing page titles (which people type manually in the address bar, and a small proportion of articles which got deleted), hence the threshold.
=Trend last 24 months=
Looking at our monthly stats http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesPageViewsMonthlyCombined.htm , in paricular 2nd row with bar charts, the trend for last 24 months, the overall trend seems to be stable. Of course trends differ per language, but the overall trend is not sloping down. (first bar chart in that row, column Sigma)
Best regards,
Erik Zachte
*From:* analytics-bounces@lists.wikimedia.org [mailto: analytics-bounces@lists.wikimedia.org] *On Behalf Of *Vipul Naik *Sent:* Thursday, March 26, 2015 15:49 *To:* A mailing list for the Analytics Team at WMF and everybody who has an interest in Wikipedia and analytics. *Subject:* [Analytics] Draft blog post on decline in Wikipedia pageviews: looking for analytics explanations
Hello all,
I've written a blog post about the decline in pageviews to some Wikipedia pages over the last few years. The blog post can be found here:
http://vipulnaik.com/blog/the-great-decline-in-wikipedia-pageviews-full-vers...
I'm planning to post a condensed version of this to a more public and widely-read forum, and *would like to get any feedback on it from people who are more familiar with the analytics*.
*In particular, I'm interested in potential explanations of the pageview decline that I might have missed, such as changes to the way the analytics are logged, or changes to people's browser or operating system use patterns, or changes in bot frequency*. I tried looking for data on trends in these, and although I could find some overall data on the use of various browsers and bot access, I couldn't get trend data that I could directly compare with the individual pageview data. So if you have easily usable sources of such trend data (stretching at least as far back as 2013), or if you have some theories based on looking at such data in the past, I'd really like to know.
So that you don't have to read the whole post to get an idea of what I'm talking about, I'll paste below two sample tables from the post that illustrate the sort of trends I am talking about:
Trends in colors (notice the sharp decline from 2013 to 2014; a monthly breakdown found in the post shows that the decline was steady from March 2013 to June 2014):
*Page name*
*Pageviews in year 2014*
*Pageviews in year 2013*
*Pageviews in year 2012*
*Pageviews in year 2011*
*Pageviews in year 2010*
*Pageviews in year 2009*
*Pageviews in year 2008*
*Total*
*Percentage*
*Tags*
Black http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black
431K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Black&language=en
1.5M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Black&language=en
1.3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Black&language=en
778K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Black&language=en
900K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Black&language=en
1M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Black&language=en
958K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Black&language=en
*6.9M*
*16.1*
Colors http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Colors&language=en&allyears=allyears
Blue http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue
710K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Blue&language=en
1.3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Blue&language=en
1M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Blue&language=en
987K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Blue&language=en
1.2M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Blue&language=en
1.2M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Blue&language=en
1.1M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Blue&language=en
*7.6M*
*17.8*
Colors http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Colors&language=en&allyears=allyears
Brown http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown
192K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Brown&language=en
284K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Brown&language=en
318K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Brown&language=en
292K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Brown&language=en
308K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Brown&language=en
300K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Brown&language=en
277K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Brown&language=en
*2M*
*4.6*
Colors http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Colors&language=en&allyears=allyears
Green http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green
422K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Green&language=en
844K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Green&language=en
779K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Green&language=en
707K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Green&language=en
882K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Green&language=en
885K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Green&language=en
733K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Green&language=en
*5.3M*
*12.3*
Colors http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Colors&language=en&allyears=allyears
Orange http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange
133K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Orange&language=en
181K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Orange&language=en
251K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Orange&language=en
259K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Orange&language=en
275K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Orange&language=en
313K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Orange&language=en
318K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Orange&language=en
*1.7M*
*4*
Colors http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Colors&language=en&allyears=allyears
Purple http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purple
524K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Purple&language=en
906K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Purple&language=en
847K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Purple&language=en
895K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Purple&language=en
865K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Purple&language=en
841K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Purple&language=en
592K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Purple&language=en
*5.5M*
*12.8*
Colors http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Colors&language=en&allyears=allyears
Red http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red
568K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Red&language=en
797K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Red&language=en
912K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Red&language=en
1M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Red&language=en
1.1M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Red&language=en
873K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Red&language=en
938K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Red&language=en
*6.2M*
*14.6*
Colors http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Colors&language=en&allyears=allyears
Violet http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Violet
56K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Violet&language=en
96K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Violet&language=en
75K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Violet&language=en
77K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Violet&language=en
69K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Violet&language=en
71K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Violet&language=en
65K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Violet&language=en
*509K*
*1.2*
Colors http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Colors&language=en&allyears=allyears
White http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White
301K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=White&language=en
795K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=White&language=en
615K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=White&language=en
545K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=White&language=en
788K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=White&language=en
575K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=White&language=en
581K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=White&language=en
*4.2M*
*9.8*
Colors http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Colors&language=en&allyears=allyears
Yellow http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow
304K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Yellow&language=en
424K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Yellow&language=en
453K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Yellow&language=en
433K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Yellow&language=en
452K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Yellow&language=en
427K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Yellow&language=en
398K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Yellow&language=en
*2.9M*
*6.8*
Colors http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Colors&language=en&allyears=allyears
*Total*
*3.6M*
*7.1M*
*6.6M*
*6M*
*6.9M*
*6.5M*
*6M*
*43M*
*100*
–
*Percentage*
*8.5*
*16.7*
*15.4*
*14*
*16*
*15.3*
*14*
*100*
–
–
Trends in the most populated countries (note the peaking in 2010 and decline from then to 2014):
*Page name*
*Pageviews in year 2014*
*Pageviews in year 2013*
*Pageviews in year 2012*
*Pageviews in year 2011*
*Pageviews in year 2010*
*Pageviews in year 2009*
*Pageviews in year 2008*
*Total*
*Percentage*
*Tags*
China http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China
5.7M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=China&language=en
6.8M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=China&language=en
7.8M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=China&language=en
6.1M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=China&language=en
6.9M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=China&language=en
5.7M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=China&language=en
6.1M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=China&language=en
*45M*
*9*
India http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India
8.8M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=India&language=en
12M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=India&language=en
12M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=India&language=en
11M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=India&language=en
14M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=India&language=en
8.8M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=India&language=en
7.6M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=India&language=en
*73M*
*14.5*
United States http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States
*129M*
*25.7*
Indonesia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia
5.3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Indonesia&language=en
5.2M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Indonesia&language=en
3.7M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Indonesia&language=en
3.6M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Indonesia&language=en
4.2M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Indonesia&language=en
3.1M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Indonesia&language=en
2.5M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Indonesia&language=en
*28M*
*5.5*
Brazil http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazil
4.8M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Brazil&language=en
4.9M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Brazil&language=en
5.3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Brazil&language=en
5.5M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Brazil&language=en
7.5M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Brazil&language=en
4.9M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Brazil&language=en
4.3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Brazil&language=en
*37M*
*7.4*
Pakistan http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan
2.9M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Pakistan&language=en
4.5M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Pakistan&language=en
4.4M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Pakistan&language=en
4.3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Pakistan&language=en
5.2M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Pakistan&language=en
4M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Pakistan&language=en
3.2M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Pakistan&language=en
*28M*
*5.7*
Bangladesh http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh
2.2M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Bangladesh&language=en
2.9M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Bangladesh&language=en
3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Bangladesh&language=en
2.8M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Bangladesh&language=en
2.9M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Bangladesh&language=en
2.2M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Bangladesh&language=en
1.7M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Bangladesh&language=en
*18M*
*3.5*
Russia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia
5.6M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Russia&language=en
5.6M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Russia&language=en
6.5M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Russia&language=en
6.8M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Russia&language=en
8.6M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Russia&language=en
5.4M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Russia&language=en
5.8M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Russia&language=en
*44M*
*8.8*
Nigeria http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria
2.6M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Nigeria&language=en
2.6M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Nigeria&language=en
2.9M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Nigeria&language=en
3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Nigeria&language=en
3.5M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Nigeria&language=en
2.6M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Nigeria&language=en
2M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Nigeria&language=en
*19M*
*3.8*
Japan http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan
4.8M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Japan&language=en
6.4M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Japan&language=en
6.5M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Japan&language=en
8.3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Japan&language=en
10M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Japan&language=en
7.3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Japan&language=en
6.6M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Japan&language=en
*50M*
*10*
Mexico http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico
3.1M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Mexico&language=en
3.9M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Mexico&language=en
4.3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Mexico&language=en
4.3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Mexico&language=en
5.9M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Mexico&language=en
4.7M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Mexico&language=en
4.5M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Mexico&language=en
*31M*
*6.1*
*Total*
*59M*
*69M*
*74M*
*74M*
*103M*
*65M*
*59M*
*502M*
*100*
–
*Percentage*
*11.7*
*13.8*
*14.7*
*14.7*
*20.4*
*12.9*
*11.8*
*100*
–
–
I'm also pasting my hypothesis list from near the end of the post below:
*Google’s Knowledge Graphhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knowledge_Graph*: This is the hypothesis raised in Wikipediocracy http://wikipediocracy.com/2014/01/06/googles-knowledge-graph-killing-wikipedia/, the Daily Dot http://www.dailydot.com/news/wikipedia-falling-traffic-meaning/, and the Register http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/01/13/google_stabs_wikipedia_in_the_front/. The Knowledge Graph was introduced in 2012. Through 2013, Google rolled out snippets based on the Knowledge Graph in its search results. So if, for instance, you only wanted the birth date and nationality of a musician, Googling would show you that information right in the search results and you wouldn’t need to click through to the Wikipedia page.
*Other means of accessing Wikipedia’s knowledge that don’tinvolve viewing it directly*: For instance, Apple’s Siri tool uses data from Wikipedia, and people making queries to this tool may get information from Wikipedia without hitting the encyclopedia.
*Changes to pageview-counting methods or to the number of falsepageviews generated by bots and crawlers*: While this probably isn’t sufficient to explain the entire decline, it could well be the case that some of the decline arises from bots and crawlers becoming more efficient in terms of the frequency with which they crawl Wikipedia and generate false pageviews. The official estimate https://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesPageViewsMonthlyCombined.htm is that about 15% of pageviews are bot-generated,
*Substitution away from Wikipedia to other pages that arebecoming more search-optimized and growing in number*: For many topics, Wikipedia may have been clearly the best information source a few years back (as judged by Google), but the growth of niche information sources, as well as better search methods, have displaced it from its undisputed leadership position.
*Substitution away from coarser, broader pages to finer,narrower pages within Wikipedia*: While this cannot directly explain an *overall *decline in pageviews, it can explain a decline in pageviews for particular kinds of pages. Indeed, I suspect that this is partly what’s going on with the early decline of pageviews.
Thanks,
Vipul
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