[Analytics] Draft blog post on decline in Wikipedia pageviews: looking for analytics explanations

Hello all,

I've written a blog post about the decline in pageviews to some Wikipedia pages over the last few years. The blog post can be found here:

http://vipulnaik.com/blog/the-great-decline-in-wikipedia-pageviews-full-vers...

I'm planning to post a condensed version of this to a more public and widely-read forum, and *would like to get any feedback on it from people who are more familiar with the analytics*.

*In particular, I'm interested in potential explanations of the pageview decline that I might have missed, such as changes to the way the analytics are logged, or changes to people's browser or operating system use patterns, or changes in bot frequency*. I tried looking for data on trends in these, and although I could find some overall data on the use of various browsers and bot access, I couldn't get trend data that I could directly compare with the individual pageview data. So if you have easily usable sources of such trend data (stretching at least as far back as 2013), or if you have some theories based on looking at such data in the past, I'd really like to know.

So that you don't have to read the whole post to get an idea of what I'm talking about, I'll paste below two sample tables from the post that illustrate the sort of trends I am talking about:

Trends in colors (notice the sharp decline from 2013 to 2014; a monthly breakdown found in the post shows that the decline was steady from March 2013 to June 2014): Page name Pageviews in year 2014 Pageviews in year 2013 Pageviews in year 2012 Pageviews in year 2011 Pageviews in year 2010 Pageviews in year 2009 Pageviews in year 2008 Total Percentage Tags Black http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black 431K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Black&language=en 1.5M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Black&language=en 1.3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Black&language=en 778K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Black&language=en 900K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Black&language=en 1M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Black&language=en 958K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Black&language=en *6.9M* *16.1* Colors http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Colors&language=en&allyears=allyears Blue http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue 710K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Blue&language=en 1.3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Blue&language=en 1M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Blue&language=en 987K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Blue&language=en 1.2M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Blue&language=en 1.2M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Blue&language=en 1.1M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Blue&language=en *7.6M* *17.8* Colors http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Colors&language=en&allyears=allyears Brown http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown 192K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Brown&language=en 284K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Brown&language=en 318K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Brown&language=en 292K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Brown&language=en 308K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Brown&language=en 300K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Brown&language=en 277K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Brown&language=en *2M* *4.6* Colors http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Colors&language=en&allyears=allyears Green http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green 422K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Green&language=en 844K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Green&language=en 779K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Green&language=en 707K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Green&language=en 882K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Green&language=en 885K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Green&language=en 733K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Green&language=en *5.3M* *12.3* Colors http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Colors&language=en&allyears=allyears Orange http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange 133K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Orange&language=en 181K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Orange&language=en 251K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Orange&language=en 259K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Orange&language=en 275K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Orange&language=en 313K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Orange&language=en 318K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Orange&language=en *1.7M* *4* Colors http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Colors&language=en&allyears=allyears Purple http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purple 524K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Purple&language=en 906K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Purple&language=en 847K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Purple&language=en 895K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Purple&language=en 865K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Purple&language=en 841K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Purple&language=en 592K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Purple&language=en *5.5M* *12.8* Colors http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Colors&language=en&allyears=allyears Red http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red 568K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Red&language=en 797K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Red&language=en 912K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Red&language=en 1M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Red&language=en 1.1M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Red&language=en 873K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Red&language=en 938K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Red&language=en *6.2M* *14.6* Colors http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Colors&language=en&allyears=allyears Violet http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Violet 56K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Violet&language=en 96K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Violet&language=en 75K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Violet&language=en 77K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Violet&language=en 69K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Violet&language=en 71K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Violet&language=en 65K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Violet&language=en *509K* *1.2* Colors http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Colors&language=en&allyears=allyears White http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White 301K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=White&language=en 795K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=White&language=en 615K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=White&language=en 545K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=White&language=en 788K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=White&language=en 575K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=White&language=en 581K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=White&language=en *4.2M* *9.8* Colors http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Colors&language=en&allyears=allyears Yellow http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow 304K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Yellow&language=en 424K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Yellow&language=en 453K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Yellow&language=en 433K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Yellow&language=en 452K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Yellow&language=en 427K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Yellow&language=en 398K http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Yellow&language=en *2.9M* *6.8* Colors http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Colors&language=en&allyears=allyears *Total* *3.6M* *7.1M* *6.6M* *6M* *6.9M* *6.5M* *6M* *43M* *100* – *Percentage* *8.5* *16.7* *15.4* *14* *16* *15.3* *14* *100* – –

Trends in the most populated countries (note the peaking in 2010 and decline from then to 2014): Page name Pageviews in year 2014 Pageviews in year 2013 Pageviews in year 2012 Pageviews in year 2011 Pageviews in year 2010 Pageviews in year 2009 Pageviews in year 2008 Total Percentage Tags China http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China 5.7M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=China&language=en 6.8M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=China&language=en 7.8M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=China&language=en 6.1M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=China&language=en 6.9M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=China&language=en 5.7M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=China&language=en 6.1M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=China&language=en *45M* *9* Countries http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Countries&language=en&allyears=allyears India http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India 8.8M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=India&language=en 12M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=India&language=en 12M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=India&language=en 11M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=India&language=en 14M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=India&language=en 8.8M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=India&language=en 7.6M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=India&language=en *73M* *14.5* Countries http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Countries&language=en&allyears=allyears United States http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States 13M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=United%20States&language=en 15M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=United%20States&language=en 18M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=United%20States&language=en 18M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=United%20States&language=en 34M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=United%20States&language=en 16M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=United%20States&language=en 15M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=United%20States&language=en *129M* *25.7* Countries http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Countries&language=en&allyears=allyears Indonesia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia 5.3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Indonesia&language=en 5.2M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Indonesia&language=en 3.7M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Indonesia&language=en 3.6M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Indonesia&language=en 4.2M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Indonesia&language=en 3.1M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Indonesia&language=en 2.5M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Indonesia&language=en *28M* *5.5* Countries http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Countries&language=en&allyears=allyears Brazil http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazil 4.8M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Brazil&language=en 4.9M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Brazil&language=en 5.3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Brazil&language=en 5.5M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Brazil&language=en 7.5M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Brazil&language=en 4.9M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Brazil&language=en 4.3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Brazil&language=en *37M* *7.4* Countries http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Countries&language=en&allyears=allyears Pakistan http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan 2.9M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Pakistan&language=en 4.5M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Pakistan&language=en 4.4M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Pakistan&language=en 4.3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Pakistan&language=en 5.2M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Pakistan&language=en 4M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Pakistan&language=en 3.2M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Pakistan&language=en *28M* *5.7* Countries http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Countries&language=en&allyears=allyears Bangladesh http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh 2.2M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Bangladesh&language=en 2.9M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Bangladesh&language=en 3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Bangladesh&language=en 2.8M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Bangladesh&language=en 2.9M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Bangladesh&language=en 2.2M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Bangladesh&language=en 1.7M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Bangladesh&language=en *18M* *3.5* Countries http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Countries&language=en&allyears=allyears Russia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia 5.6M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Russia&language=en 5.6M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Russia&language=en 6.5M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Russia&language=en 6.8M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Russia&language=en 8.6M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Russia&language=en 5.4M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Russia&language=en 5.8M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Russia&language=en *44M* *8.8* Countries http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Countries&language=en&allyears=allyears Nigeria http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria 2.6M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Nigeria&language=en 2.6M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Nigeria&language=en 2.9M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Nigeria&language=en 3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Nigeria&language=en 3.5M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Nigeria&language=en 2.6M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Nigeria&language=en 2M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Nigeria&language=en *19M* *3.8* Countries http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Countries&language=en&allyears=allyears Japan http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan 4.8M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Japan&language=en 6.4M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Japan&language=en 6.5M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Japan&language=en 8.3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Japan&language=en 10M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Japan&language=en 7.3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Japan&language=en 6.6M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Japan&language=en *50M* *10* Countries http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Countries&language=en&allyears=allyears Mexico http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico 3.1M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2014&page=Mexico&language=en 3.9M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2013&page=Mexico&language=en 4.3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2012&page=Mexico&language=en 4.3M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2011&page=Mexico&language=en 5.9M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2010&page=Mexico&language=en 4.7M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2009&page=Mexico&language=en 4.5M http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?year=2008&page=Mexico&language=en *31M* *6.1* Countries http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultipleyears.php?tag=Countries&language=en&allyears=allyears *Total* *59M* *69M* *74M* *74M* *103M* *65M* *59M* *502M* *100* – *Percentage* *11.7* *13.8* *14.7* *14.7* *20.4* *12.9* *11.8* *100* – –

I'm also pasting my hypothesis list from near the end of the post below:

1. *Google’s Knowledge Graph https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knowledge_Graph*: This is the hypothesis raised in Wikipediocracy http://wikipediocracy.com/2014/01/06/googles-knowledge-graph-killing-wikipedia/, the Daily Dot http://www.dailydot.com/news/wikipedia-falling-traffic-meaning/, and the Register http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/01/13/google_stabs_wikipedia_in_the_front/. The Knowledge Graph was introduced in 2012. Through 2013, Google rolled out snippets based on the Knowledge Graph in its search results. So if, for instance, you only wanted the birth date and nationality of a musician, Googling would show you that information right in the search results and you wouldn’t need to click through to the Wikipedia page. 2. *Other means of accessing Wikipedia’s knowledge that don’t involve viewing it directly*: For instance, Apple’s Siri tool uses data from Wikipedia, and people making queries to this tool may get information from Wikipedia without hitting the encyclopedia. 3. *Changes to pageview-counting methods or to the number of false pageviews generated by bots and crawlers*: While this probably isn’t sufficient to explain the entire decline, it could well be the case that some of the decline arises from bots and crawlers becoming more efficient in terms of the frequency with which they crawl Wikipedia and generate false pageviews. The official estimate https://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesPageViewsMonthlyCombined.htm is that about 15% of pageviews are bot-generated, 4. *Substitution away from Wikipedia to other pages that are becoming more search-optimized and growing in number*: For many topics, Wikipedia may have been clearly the best information source a few years back (as judged by Google), but the growth of niche information sources, as well as better search methods, have displaced it from its undisputed leadership position. 5. *Substitution away from coarser, broader pages to finer, narrower pages within Wikipedia*: While this cannot directly explain an *overall *decline in pageviews, it can explain a decline in pageviews for particular kinds of pages. Indeed, I suspect that this is partly what’s going on with the early decline of pageviews.

Thanks,

Vipul