[WikiEN-l] Rating the English wikipedia

[Ian Woollard]

On 16/02/2011, Carcharoth <carcharothwp at googlemail.com> wrote:
> I came across this interesting essay:
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Modelling_Wikipedia_extended_growth
>
> It tries to project to the year 2025!

And fails spectacularly. The extended growth model seems pretty
inaccurate, very over-optimistic:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enwikipediagrowthcomparison.PNG

That graph hasn't been updated recently, but other graphs show that
the Gompertz model is still tracking about as well as any simple model
could do:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:EnwikipediagrowthGom.PNG

although even that is looking perhaps very slightly pessimistic, but
it's too early to be absolutely sure.

But we can certainly I think, say with some justification, that the
extended growth model is significantly off the mark.

> Carcharoth

-- 
-Ian Woollard