[WikiEN-l] A definite version of WP:CRYSTAL

[Jay Litwyn]

I've done a little bit of everything in wikipedia; fact checks and sources, 
categorization, organization, matters of style (often necessary for fact 
checks), and linking. I wouldn't do anything for text like this, because it 
speaks authoritatively about something that can not be known until it comes. 
If any of it turns out to be false, then it would interfere with credibility 
of wikipedia. If it turned out to be true, then I would wonder if 
wikipedia's endorsement of a pundit had something to do with it; 
self-fulfilling prophecy. Consider a move to http://future.wikia.com Your 
information is inherently commercial. You might think that you will get more 
interest in such stuff from wikipedia, just because it's the grand-daddy, 
and I really don't think people should even be looking for forecasting on 
wikipedia. Information like this dates and dates quickly in the scheme of 
things. Sometimes, it dates harshly in light of what actually happens. I 
don't think that will be as likely to happen on futures-wiki. It is more 
likely that such material would persist and get linked, there, whether it is 
wrong or right. It should be easier for you to find like-minded or even 
contrasting pictures of the future or people with ideas for making it false. 
Just in case someone thinks I am always a curmudgeon.
_______
<a href="http://ecn.ab.ca/~brewhaha/">BrewJay's Babble Bin</a>

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Fred Bauder" <fredbaud at fairpoint.net>
To: "English Wikipedia" <wikien-l at lists.wikimedia.org>
Sent: Wednesday, November 12, 2008 6:05 AM
Subject: Re: [WikiEN-l] A definite version of WP:CRYSTAL


>I have been editing regarding the global economic crisis. The outstanding
> projection is that (unless something is effective is done) the current
> crisis will result in a crisis similar to the Great Depression. That this
> warning has been repeatedly made is not subject to dispute, but the
> question arises as to the validity of the underlying projection. A more
> minor matter is the more or less reliable projection that the rate of
> unemployment will rise to 8% (or so) during 2009 in the United States.
> There are a number of sources for this. We report generally accepted
> economic projections. That is part of what economists do. To a certain
> extent the validity for our purposes of publishing depends on appropriate
> attribution.
>
> Projections of global warming present the same problem.
>
> The specific problem for Wikipedia is not publishing of generally
> accepted projections but of original research which often has little or
> no rational basis.
>
> Fred
>
>> == Wikipedia is not a crystal ball. ==
>>
>> <nowiki>{{speculation}} and {{prophecy}}</nowiki> are not welcome on
>> wikipedia. No articles about anticipated events are verifiable, because
>> anticipated events are not reliable. They are not reliable, because they
>> are
>> not testable. Exceptional claims require exceptional references.
>> [[:category:Reliable Modern Prophets and Agencies of Prediction]] is very
>> small. Forward-looking documents and statements should be restricted to
>> events that are almost certain to happen in the obvious sense,
>> considering
>> how many times it has happened in the past and the resources devoted to
>> making it happen again.
>>
>> [http://future.wikia.com/ Wiki-future], [[WP:IRC]], [[WP:TALK]],
>> [[WP:E-MAIL]] and [[USENET]] are fine venues for writing about the
>> future,
>> and it does not belong here until it is a fact, so look out for sentences
>> that contain words like "would", "could", "may", and "might", because
>> they
>> should tell you what makes them likely, almost now.
>>
>> $continue with exceptions...no, because as WP:CRYSTAL is now, there hav
>> already been a lot of exceptions and that's probably why I ended up with
>> so
>> much static when I tried to take the [[weasel words]] out of it. I'm sure
>> there are people who took and take this policy by the name of the section
>> heading, like I did. I don't know a more sensible and pivotal rule than
>> this
>> to divide wikipedia from the rest of the media.
>>
>>
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