[WikiEN-l] A definite version of WP:CRYSTAL

[Jay Litwyn]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "FT2" <ft2.wiki at gmail.com>
To: "English Wikipedia" <wikien-l at lists.wikimedia.org>
Sent: Thursday, November 13, 2008 9:33 AM
Subject: Re: [WikiEN-l] A definite version of WP:CRYSTAL


> Wikipedia reports what is known, verifiable, and stated by significant
> reliable sources, at this time.
>
>
>
> In matters such as the economy, and global warming, some of the 
> significant
> views held NOW, are views about the future. For example, "Barrack Obama 
> will
> be the 44th president",

A day before the election I was reading this as nearly five coin tosses, 
according to polls. That qualified it extensively, because neither party was 
about to leave those states up to chance.

 " or "Based on current research the great plains will
> become desert by 2050 unless action is taken",

You are better off stating history in the form of how much of that land was 
not desert fifty years ago and changes in the rate of creepage.

 or whatever. Even verifiable
> and relevant facts about the future may be fine, such as "If  he wins
> another 3 fights he will have the longest record of any boxer".

Stuff like that is why I had trouble pruning the article on United States 
Senate, 2010. In 2010, when people are interested in the article from a 
historic POV, stuff like that would become a record. We are not robots. That 
is what WP:IAR is pretty much about. In sports and politics, we hav money 
riding on the future. So, it is natural that we find it harder to resist.

I want to give readers a clue. If their host changes, then maybe they will 
understand that they are delving into topics that are almost purely human. 
Encylopedias are about understanding things other than ourselves, too. It is 
very hard to predict anything but yourself.

 If those are
> relevant and significant in a topic, then yes, we may report them. What
> CRYSTAL is saying is, much more, that we don't go off speculatively
> wondering on our own, about future possibilities, without very good reason
> and some kind of backing...  (unless these are actually mainstream
> significant matters worth reporting, in the field concerned.) But I agree,
> it's hard to pin down :)

Now you know why I like mathematics. If I do not follow it, then I only hav 
myself to blame. If I can follow it, then I do not need authorities to make 
it stronger or more understandable.

>
>
> FT2
> On Thu, Nov 13, 2008 at 4:21 PM, Oskar Sigvardsson <
> oskarsigvardsson at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> On Thu, Nov 13, 2008 at 10:44 AM, Jay Litwyn <brewhaha at edmc.net> wrote:
>> > Even jenerally accepted projections, among economists, are open to
>> dispute
>> > on magnitude and applicability. Economics projections, like weather
>> > projections, get more erroneous as future becomes more distant.
>>
>> This is exactly! You write that! You write about the dissent, you
>> write about how there's different views by different people. You write
>> that the future, as of yet, is uncertain, but you should at least put
>> in what people are saying!
>>
>> Wikipedia shouldn't have a "This is what we think will happen" section
>> on the article about the financial crisis. That would be ludicrous.
>> But to completely avoid any mention of opinions of top economists
>> about the scale of the problem simply makes for a bad article. This
>> information is relevant, it is neutral, and it is informative. You can
>> write about it in a neutral and factual way, and we have an obligation
>> to inform the readers about what is happening.
>>
>> The essence of WP:CRYSTAL is (or at least should be) that *we*
>> shouldn't speculate on the future. But writing about other people that
>> do, in a neutral, relevant and factual way (with caveats that clearly
>> state that the actual future is uncertain) absolutely has a place in
>> wikipedia. It gives readers a deeper understanding of what's going on,
>> and it gives them information about what the big-wigs are thinking.
>>
>> --Oskar
>>
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