[teampractices] IT projects almost as prone to overruns as the Olympics

[Grace Gellerman]

Apollo 11 had a hard deadline of the end of the decade.  Not sure if the
1960s meets your definition of modern....

On Tue, Aug 16, 2016 at 8:20 AM, Kevin Smith <ksmith at wikimedia.org> wrote:

> The Olympics, unlike most of the other types of mega-projects, have a hard
> deadline. They can cut quality in some ways, but they can't run late.
>
> So (presumably) 100% of Olympic projects have hit their date, and I doubt
> any other type of mega-project is anywhere near that. (I wonder if ANY
> other modern mega-projects have come in on time.) Presumably hitting that
> date adds to the expenses, and especially to unplanned expenses as one
> delay leads to another.
>
>
>
> Kevin Smith
> Agile Coach, Wikimedia Foundation
>
>
> On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 3:30 PM, Max Binder <mbinder at wikimedia.org> wrote:
>
>> http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-
>> a-terrible-investment/
>>
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 2:25 PM, Grace Gellerman <
>> ggellerman at wikimedia.org> wrote:
>>
>>> Thanks, Joel!
>>>
>>> For more real world examples see the wikipedia entry for the Planning
>>> Fallacy <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy>.
>>>
>>>
>>> On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 1:15 PM, Kevin Smith <ksmith at wikimedia.org>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> I would also be interested in cost overrun comparisons with other
>>>> *international* projects. I mean, that has to add to the confusion and
>>>> unpredictability, right?
>>>>
>>>> The chunnel came in at 80% over budget, according to wikipedia.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Kevin Smith
>>>> Agile Coach, Wikimedia Foundation
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:33 AM, Arthur Richards <
>>>> arichards at wikimedia.org> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Fascinating, Joel, thanks for the share!
>>>>>
>>>>> On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:24 AM, Joel Aufrecht <
>>>>> jaufrecht at wikimedia.org> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> The Olympic Games average 156 percent cost overruns, outdistancing
>>>>>>> all other types of megaprojects. For comparison, road projects average
>>>>>>> overruns of 20 percent; bridges and tunnels 34 percent; energy projects 36
>>>>>>> percent; rail projects 45 percent; dams 90 percent and IT projects 107
>>>>>>> percent.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> (according to The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun
>>>>>> at the Game <http://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.04484v1.pdf>)
>>>>>>
>>>>>> (source
>>>>>> <http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-a-terrible-investment/>
>>>>>> )
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> ​Worth noting that the study looked ONLY at sports-related costs and
>>>>> excluded larger projects (eg infrastructure):
>>>>>
>>>>> The numbers cover the period 1960-2016 and include only sports-related
>>>>>> costs, i.e., wider capital costs for general infrastructure, which are
>>>>>> often larger than sports-related costs, have been excluded.​
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> ​I am curious what the average overruns would like if all
>>>>> Olympics-related costs (eg infrastructure, etc) were included.
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Arthur Richards
>>>>> Sr. Agile Coach: Organizational Collaboration
>>>>> Team Practices Group
>>>>> <https://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Team_Practices_Group>
>>>>> [[User:Awjrichards]]
>>>>> IRC: awjr
>>>>> +1-415-839-6885 x6687
>>>>>
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>>>>>
>>>>
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