<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:georgia,serif">Apollo 11 had a hard deadline of the end of the decade. Not sure if the 1960s meets your definition of modern....</div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Tue, Aug 16, 2016 at 8:20 AM, Kevin Smith <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:ksmith@wikimedia.org" target="_blank">ksmith@wikimedia.org</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">The Olympics, unlike most of the other types of mega-projects, have a hard deadline. They can cut quality in some ways, but they can't run late. <br><br>So (presumably) 100% of Olympic projects have hit their date, and I doubt any other type of mega-project is anywhere near that. (I wonder if ANY other modern mega-projects have come in on time.) Presumably hitting that date adds to the expenses, and especially to unplanned expenses as one delay leads to another. <br><br></div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><span class=""><br clear="all"><div><div data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><span><font color="#888888"><br>Kevin Smith<br>Agile Coach, Wikimedia Foundation<br></font></span><font><font><i><font color="#888888"><br></font></i></font></font></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
<br></span><div><div class="h5"><div class="gmail_quote">On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 3:30 PM, Max Binder <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:mbinder@wikimedia.org" target="_blank">mbinder@wikimedia.org</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-a-terrible-investment/" target="_blank">http://fivethirtyeight.com/fea<wbr>tures/hosting-the-olympics-is-<wbr>a-terrible-investment/</a><br><br><br></div><div><div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 2:25 PM, Grace Gellerman <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:ggellerman@wikimedia.org" target="_blank">ggellerman@wikimedia.org</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:georgia,serif">Thanks, Joel!</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:georgia,serif"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:georgia,serif">For more real world examples see the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy" target="_blank">wikipedia entry for the Planning Fallacy</a>.</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:georgia,serif"><br></div></div><div><div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 1:15 PM, Kevin Smith <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:ksmith@wikimedia.org" target="_blank">ksmith@wikimedia.org</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">I would also be interested in cost overrun comparisons with other *international* projects. I mean, that has to add to the confusion and unpredictability, right? <br><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">The chunnel came in at 80% over budget, according to wikipedia. <br></div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><span><font color="#888888"><br clear="all"><div><div data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><span><font color="#888888"><br>Kevin Smith<br>Agile Coach, Wikimedia Foundation<br></font></span><font><font><i><font color="#888888"><br></font></i></font></font></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
<br></font></span><div class="gmail_quote"><div><div>On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:33 AM, Arthur Richards <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:arichards@wikimedia.org" target="_blank">arichards@wikimedia.org</a>></span> wrote:<br></div></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div><div><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif;font-size:small">Fascinating, Joel, thanks for the share!</div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote"><span>On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:24 AM, Joel Aufrecht <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:jaufrecht@wikimedia.org" target="_blank">jaufrecht@wikimedia.org</a>></span> wrote:<br></span><span><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div style="font-family:georgia,serif"><blockquote style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex" class="gmail_quote">The Olympic Games average 156 percent cost overruns, outdistancing all
other types of megaprojects. For comparison, road projects average
overruns of 20 percent; bridges and tunnels 34 percent; energy projects
36 percent; rail projects 45 percent; dams 90 percent and IT projects
107 percent.<br></blockquote><div><br></div><div>(according to <a href="http://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.04484v1.pdf" target="_blank">The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun at the Game</a>)<br><br>(<a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-a-terrible-investment/" target="_blank">source</a>)</div></div></div></blockquote><div><br></div></span><div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif;font-size:small">Worth noting that the study looked ONLY at sports-related costs and excluded larger projects (eg infrastructure):</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif;font-size:small"><br></div><blockquote style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex" class="gmail_quote">The numbers cover the period 1960-2016 and include only sports-related costs, i.e., wider capital
costs for general infrastructure, which are often larger than sports-related costs, have been excluded.</blockquote><br></div><div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif;font-size:small">I am curious what the average overruns would like if all Olympics-related costs (eg infrastructure, etc) were included.</div></div></div><span><font color="#888888"><div><br></div>-- <br><div data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr">Arthur Richards</div><div dir="ltr">Sr. Agile Coach: Organizational Collaboration</div><div dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Team_Practices_Group" target="_blank">Team Practices Group</a><br><div>[[User:Awjrichards]]</div><div>IRC: awjr</div><div><a href="tel:%2B1-415-839-6885%20x6687" value="+14158396885" target="_blank">+1-415-839-6885 x6687</a></div></div></div></div></div>
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