[teampractices] IT projects almost as prone to overruns as the Olympics

[Kevin Smith]

The Olympics, unlike most of the other types of mega-projects, have a hard
deadline. They can cut quality in some ways, but they can't run late.

So (presumably) 100% of Olympic projects have hit their date, and I doubt
any other type of mega-project is anywhere near that. (I wonder if ANY
other modern mega-projects have come in on time.) Presumably hitting that
date adds to the expenses, and especially to unplanned expenses as one
delay leads to another.



Kevin Smith
Agile Coach, Wikimedia Foundation


On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 3:30 PM, Max Binder <mbinder at wikimedia.org> wrote:

> http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-
> is-a-terrible-investment/
>
>
>
> On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 2:25 PM, Grace Gellerman <ggellerman at wikimedia.org
> > wrote:
>
>> Thanks, Joel!
>>
>> For more real world examples see the wikipedia entry for the Planning
>> Fallacy <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy>.
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 1:15 PM, Kevin Smith <ksmith at wikimedia.org>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> I would also be interested in cost overrun comparisons with other
>>> *international* projects. I mean, that has to add to the confusion and
>>> unpredictability, right?
>>>
>>> The chunnel came in at 80% over budget, according to wikipedia.
>>>
>>>
>>> Kevin Smith
>>> Agile Coach, Wikimedia Foundation
>>>
>>>
>>> On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:33 AM, Arthur Richards <
>>> arichards at wikimedia.org> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Fascinating, Joel, thanks for the share!
>>>>
>>>> On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:24 AM, Joel Aufrecht <
>>>> jaufrecht at wikimedia.org> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> The Olympic Games average 156 percent cost overruns, outdistancing all
>>>>>> other types of megaprojects. For comparison, road projects average overruns
>>>>>> of 20 percent; bridges and tunnels 34 percent; energy projects 36 percent;
>>>>>> rail projects 45 percent; dams 90 percent and IT projects 107 percent.
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> (according to The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun
>>>>> at the Game <http://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.04484v1.pdf>)
>>>>>
>>>>> (source
>>>>> <http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-a-terrible-investment/>
>>>>> )
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> ​Worth noting that the study looked ONLY at sports-related costs and
>>>> excluded larger projects (eg infrastructure):
>>>>
>>>> The numbers cover the period 1960-2016 and include only sports-related
>>>>> costs, i.e., wider capital costs for general infrastructure, which are
>>>>> often larger than sports-related costs, have been excluded.​
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> ​I am curious what the average overruns would like if all
>>>> Olympics-related costs (eg infrastructure, etc) were included.
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Arthur Richards
>>>> Sr. Agile Coach: Organizational Collaboration
>>>> Team Practices Group
>>>> <https://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Team_Practices_Group>
>>>> [[User:Awjrichards]]
>>>> IRC: awjr
>>>> +1-415-839-6885 x6687
>>>>
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