[teampractices] IT projects almost as prone to overruns as the Olympics

[Max Binder]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-a-terrible-investment/



On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 2:25 PM, Grace Gellerman <ggellerman at wikimedia.org>
wrote:

> Thanks, Joel!
>
> For more real world examples see the wikipedia entry for the Planning
> Fallacy <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy>.
>
>
> On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 1:15 PM, Kevin Smith <ksmith at wikimedia.org> wrote:
>
>> I would also be interested in cost overrun comparisons with other
>> *international* projects. I mean, that has to add to the confusion and
>> unpredictability, right?
>>
>> The chunnel came in at 80% over budget, according to wikipedia.
>>
>>
>> Kevin Smith
>> Agile Coach, Wikimedia Foundation
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:33 AM, Arthur Richards <
>> arichards at wikimedia.org> wrote:
>>
>>> Fascinating, Joel, thanks for the share!
>>>
>>> On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:24 AM, Joel Aufrecht <jaufrecht at wikimedia.org
>>> > wrote:
>>>
>>>> The Olympic Games average 156 percent cost overruns, outdistancing all
>>>>> other types of megaprojects. For comparison, road projects average overruns
>>>>> of 20 percent; bridges and tunnels 34 percent; energy projects 36 percent;
>>>>> rail projects 45 percent; dams 90 percent and IT projects 107 percent.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> (according to The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun at
>>>> the Game <http://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.04484v1.pdf>)
>>>>
>>>> (source
>>>> <http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-a-terrible-investment/>
>>>> )
>>>>
>>>
>>> ​Worth noting that the study looked ONLY at sports-related costs and
>>> excluded larger projects (eg infrastructure):
>>>
>>> The numbers cover the period 1960-2016 and include only sports-related
>>>> costs, i.e., wider capital costs for general infrastructure, which are
>>>> often larger than sports-related costs, have been excluded.​
>>>
>>>
>>> ​I am curious what the average overruns would like if all
>>> Olympics-related costs (eg infrastructure, etc) were included.
>>>
>>> --
>>> Arthur Richards
>>> Sr. Agile Coach: Organizational Collaboration
>>> Team Practices Group
>>> <https://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Team_Practices_Group>
>>> [[User:Awjrichards]]
>>> IRC: awjr
>>> +1-415-839-6885 x6687
>>>
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>>>
>>
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>
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