Bjorn, Jayjg's description is correct here. Your
version suggests that
the figure is Mitchell Bard's, but it isn't (he gives his own estimate
elsewhere). The figure is from the UN mediator's progress report,
which Mitchell Bard says he is quoting.
Well let's wait until we can say that the figure is in the UN mediator's
report. Those of us who have checked on the UN copy have not found the
figure.