[Wikipedia-l] Growth estimates again: some figures to check in a year's time

[Neil Harris]

A bit of twiddling with a ruler on a log-linear graph of the article 
count vs. time appears to show a "natural" exponential growth rate of 
between:

"Optimistic", based on  May 2001 - May 2002, ignoring the Great Slowdown,
and also fitting the most recent slope:

  exp(0.18 * months)

"Pessimistic", fitting May 2001 - present including the Great Slowdown:

  exp(0.125 * months)

This produces these extrapolations, assuming exponential growth.

Month,       optimistic,  pessimistic
Sep 2002,    45000,    45000  ) 50,000 is reached sometime
Oct 2002,    54000,    51000  ) in these two months
Nov 2002,    64000,    58000
Dec 2002,    77000,    65000

Jan 2003,    92000,    74000
Feb 2003,   111000,    84000 <--- optimistic 100,000
Mar 2003,   133000,    95000
Apr 2003,   159000,   108000 <--- pessimistic 100,000
May 2003,   190000,   122000
Jun 2003,   227000,   139000
Jul 2003,   272000,   157000
Aug 2003,   326000,   178000
Sep 2003,   390000,   202000
Oct 2003,   467000,   229000
Nov 2003,   559000,   259000 <--- optimistic 500,000
Dec 2003,   670000,   293000

Jan 2004,   802000,   333000
Feb 2004,   960000,   377000
Mar 2004,  1149000,   427000 <--- optimistic 1,000,000
Apr 2004,  1376000,   484000
May 2004,  1647000,   548000 <--- pessimistic 500,000
Jun 2004,  1972000,   621000
Jul 2004,  2361000,   704000
Aug 2004,  2826000,   798000
Sep 2004,  3383000,   904000
Oct 2004,  4051000,  1024000 <--- pessimistic 1,000,000
Nov 2004,  4850000,  1161000
Dec 2004,  5806000,  1315000