[Wikimedia-l] Thanking anonymous users

[Tim Starling]

On 14/01/14 16:08, Marc A. Pelletier wrote:
> On 01/13/2014 11:56 PM, Tim Starling wrote:
>> Reversing the decline in editor population has been a major strategic
>> priority of WMF for many years.
> 
> My own opinion about how that decline isn't nearly as bad as some claim
> is well known.  But also entirely besides the point:  I was referring to
> that specific statement of yours:
> 
> "A linear regression on the
> edit rate from that time predicts death of the project at around 2030."
> 
> I kept expecting you to add "Netcraft confirms it" at some point.  :-)

Well, obviously I extrapolated a model to the point of absurdity, but
I think it's better to derive a model from data than to make
predictions based on unsubstantiated hope.

In my post at 05:19 UTC, I assumed a stable edit rate, which I thought
was an optimistic upper bound. But Matt thought that it was actually
pessimistic? So I gave an example of a model that I consider to be
pessimistic, for comparison. I don't think either model is realistic,
I think the most likely reality lies somewhere in between.

-- Tim Starling