[Wikimedia-l] Editor retention (was Re: "Big data" benefits and limitations (relevance: WMF editor engagement, fundraising, and HR practices))

[Tim Starling]

On 11/01/13 03:58, Federico Leva (Nemo) wrote:
> Andreas Kolbe, 10/01/2013 17:24:
>> On Wed, Jan 9, 2013 at 6:41 AM, Federico Leva (Nemo) wrote:
>> 
>>> The main pattern, ie a turning point in 2007, is the same in
>>> all projects, and almost in all language versions of them:
>>> [...]
>> 
>> Actually, Nemo, I don't think that is right at all. If you look
>> at the German, Spanish or French Wikipedia, for example, the
>> German and Spanish are totally stable, with no decline at all
>> discernible around 2007, while editor numbers for the French
>> Wikipedia are actually growing:
>> 
>> http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaFR.htm 
>> http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaDE.htm 
>> http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaES.htm
> 
> I said "a turning point", i.e. a singularity; mainly, from positive
> to non-positive derivative, whether negative or not. Of course,
> it's easier to see in a graph than in a table.

IIRC, there was a large reduction in traffic growth rate in
approximatly 2007, presumably due to market saturation. You'd expect a
similar market saturation effect in editor population. A decline can't
be explained away in that way.

> It's the same in Italian, growth till January-March 2008 and then
> oscillation/stagnation:
> http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaIT.htm

"Stagnation" is another way to say "stability", except that it also
implies rot. I don't think we can take it for granted that a wiki will
rot if it has a stable editor population.

If the English Wikipedia could achieve a stable editor population, I
would be very happy.

-- Tim Starling