jsalsman at gmail.com
Fri Dec 28 22:11:57 UTC 2012
> I'm not quite sure what you mean by multivariate analysis
I mean as in the tests done May 16, September 20, and October 9
reported at http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fundraising_2012/We_Need_A_Breakthrough
without adjusting the best performing pull-down delivery combined
banner/landing page from the beginning of this month (although I don't
think we will need the one that follows vertical scrolling. It may
produce 30% but that will be nothing if the remaining ~300 appeal
messages are tested, unless they don't fit the lognormal distribution
that they appear to.)
> That would be complex, and could be a disaster...
What are the possible failure modes?
On Dec 28, 2012 9:46 PM, "James Salsman" <jsalsman at gmail.com> wrote:
> How about for the April fundraiser, instead of setting a dollar value
> goal, we agree to use multivariate analysis instead of A/B testing to
> optimize the messaging from volunteer submissions in advance, then run
> the whole thing for a fixed time frame, say three weeks, and then use
> the actual amount raised to decide whether salaries should be
> competitive with area tech firms, whether Fellowships should be
> jettisoned, how much personnel to put into the Education Program and
> engineering, and how much of a reserve to invest, preferably with low
> risk instruments which pay above the rate of inflation?
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