[WikiEN-l] Featured churn

[Carcharoth]

On Tue, Nov 17, 2009 at 5:59 AM, Ian Woollard <ian.woollard at gmail.com> wrote:
> On 14/07/2009, Sage Ross <ragesoss+wikipedia at gmail.com> wrote:
>> On Tue, Jul 14, 2009 at 10:07 AM, Ian Woollard<ian.woollard at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>> It's looking to me like 3.5 million is about the plateau, since the
>>> curve is bang on that, but we might make 4 million *eventually*.
>>>
>>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Modelling_Wikipedia%27s_growth#Logistic_model_for_growth_in_article_count_of_Wikipedia
>>>
>>
>> I don't think the bell-shaped articles/day curve of the logistic model
>> is a good description of the trends.  Since article creation peaked in
>> 2007, the falloff in article creation has been much slower than than
>> ramp-up.  Rather than falling back to close to zero articles/day over
>> the next 5 years or so (as the logistic model predicts), it looks like
>> we're heading to an asymptote of (I'm eyeballing it here) around 1000
>> articles/day.  I expect 4 million articles a lot sooner than
>> *eventually*.  ;)
>
> http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Enwikipediagrowth.PNG
>
> We're already down to 1000/day growth on the unsmoothed graph as we
> fall off one of the two biannual growth peaks.
>
> Looks like the Wikipedia is still bang-on for 3.5 million articles.

As long as history doesn't come to an end, and new people keep getting
born and (annoyingly) becoming notable enough for a Wikipedia article,
there will always be a need for new articles.

Carcharoth