[WikiEN-l] Featured churn

[Ian Woollard]

On 14/07/2009, Sage Ross <ragesoss+wikipedia at gmail.com> wrote:
> I don't think the bell-shaped articles/day curve of the logistic model
> is a good description of the trends.  Since article creation peaked in
> 2007, the falloff in article creation has been much slower than than
> ramp-up.  Rather than falling back to close to zero articles/day over
> the next 5 years or so (as the logistic model predicts), it looks like
> we're heading to an asymptote of (I'm eyeballing it here) around 1000
> articles/day.  I expect 4 million articles a lot sooner than
> *eventually*.  ;)

I don't see any evidence for an asymptote at all yet.

We're only about ~1300 per day now, and the trend is clearly
downwards, on a *log* graph of *percentage* growth against time it's a
straightish line downwards, and the size of the wiki seems to be
plateauing; percentage growth is a quarter what it was two years ago,
and the wiki is only 1/3 bigger.

IMO we're probably going to be under a 1000 per day by Christmas. If
we do manage 4 million I don't think it will be in the next 4 years.

> -Sage

-- 
-Ian Woollard

"All the world's a stage... but you'll grow out of it eventually."