[WikiEN-l] The Statistical Decline of the English Wikipedia Community

[geni]

On 10/10/2007, David Gerard <dgerard at gmail.com> wrote:
> On 10/10/2007, Moe Epsilon <moe_epsilon at yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> > I wouldn't doubt that growth of the site is waning. How much more can an already-popular website expotentially grow? Think about it, Wikipedia is currently in the top 8(?) most popular websites on the Earth. There's not too many internet users that don't know already about Wikipedia's existance in some way. Unless theres a sudden burst of popularity in the media like the Essjay incident or the Edit to the Chris Benoit article that made headlines, I don't expect Wikipedia to actually increase in popularity anymore than it already has. Wikipedia had a meteoric rise from 2003 to 2006/07, maybe the level of popularity has just stabilized, it happens to all sites eventually.
>
>
> Yeah, but I remember thinking that most of the steps along the way as
> well. Alexa ranking is strictly for amusement purposes. In any case,
> it's still going up:
>
> http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?site0=wikipedia.org&y=t&z=0&h=400&w=700&range=1y&size=Large&url=http://wikipedia.org
> http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?site0=wikipedia.org&y=p&z=0&h=400&w=700&range=1y&size=Large&url=http://wikipedia.org
>
> Here's the request and traffic graphs for the last year or so. This is
> across all of Wikimedia, not just en:wp:
>
> http://tools.wikimedia.de/~leon/stats/
> http://tools.wikimedia.de/~leon/stats/reqstats/reqstats-yearly.png
> http://tools.wikimedia.de/~leon/stats/trafstats/trafficstats-yearly.png
>
> Those *may* be going flat, but I'd be surprised.
>
>
> - d.


Raw traffic isn't going to map with content creation. the 99% 1% rule.
In the past we have been able to stay above 1% of those viewing
editing but the percentage will likely change with new viewing
audience. I suspect net regulars are the group with the greatest
number of 1%ers in and I doubt we have much growth potential left
among the net regulars.

-- 
geni