[WikiEN-l] Original research or common sense inferral?

[Daniel P. B. Smith]

> Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2007 13:09:50 -0700
> From: "phoebe ayers" <phoebe.wiki at gmail.com>
>
> A nice example :)
>
> Well, the OED, generally recognized as the gold standard in  
> etymology, lists
> the first use of the term in a figurative sense ("leading to  
> disaster")  in
> 1951: *"1951* J.
> FLEMING<http://dictionary.oed.com/help/bib/oed2-f.html#j-fleming>
> *Man who looked Back* x. 132 You go off down the slippery slope;  
> it'll do
> you good." There are two more quotations, one from 1964 and one  
> form 1979.
> There are of course earlier uses of the phrase but they are not  
> meant in the
> same way. Seems to me that to really make your case based on your  
> original
> research in the NYT, you'd need to check every single use of the  
> citation to
> make sure they were talking about a slippery slope (figuratively,  
> as in
> leading to disaster) and not a slippery slope (literally). Did you  
> do this?

I made a sort of loosy-goosy due-diligence effort.

There were really two questions here. One was: what are some example  
of early uses in its present sense. That's sort of a separate topic.  
The second is: despite the fact that there _are_ early uses in its  
present sense, its use exploded circa 1980 or so. Based on casual  
sampling, virtually all uses after 1980 are in the present figurative  
sense. (Before that, quite a lot of them are not).

If I search _only_ for articles in which the phrase "slippery slope"  
appears _in the title_, the very first such reference is in 1943, and  
is to a literal use: "Dauntless Is the Skier Seeking Snow; The  
Uncertainties of Travel Fail to Halt His Quest for Slippery Slopes as  
Shown by a Railroad Trip to Snow Valley Above Manchester, Vt." The  
next nine span 1963 to 1988, and all are, I claim, I judge, I opine,  
the modern use. "Russia and China Edge Down a Slippery Slope;" "The  
Nation; U.S. and Cambodia: Down the 'Slippery Slope' Again?;" "On the  
Slippery Slope To Another Vietnam," etc.

So, again, what would you do here? State the common-sense inference  
("the very first such reference is in 1943, and is to a literal use;  
the next nine span 1963 to 1988 and are all the modern use," and give  
title, date, and page of all ten in a footnote? Surely not: put  
title, date, page of all ten in the article itself?

With regard to the OED and first use in its present sense, why yes, I  
know better than that edition of the OED. First of all, William  
Safire gives a 1909 example in a 2002 column:

"The key task of the phrasedick is to find earliest uses of  
["slippery slope"] in its present sense of "a course that leads  
inexorably to disaster." The OED tracks it to a 1951 novel, but new  
retrieval technology lets us do better than that.... We have this  
1857 use from Chambers' Journal: "When the educated person of the  
middle class is reduced to pennilessness... what but this gives him  
the desire to struggle again up the slippery slope of fortune?"
In both of these citations, the meaning is closer to "the greasy  
pole...." The current sense... probably surfaced in the early 20th  
century, possibly in an article by a writer in a 1909 Quarterly  
Review, published in London: "the first step down that slippery slope  
at the bottom of which lies a parliamentary government."

But new retrieval technology, namely Google Books, lets me do better  
than Safire.

I found an 1878 reference by one Bernard O'Reilly: "It is not with  
them we are concerned: they will not be taught or reformed; so, they  
will go down the steep and slippery slope on which the heartless  
move, to perdition!"

I think that's unquestionably an example of usage to mean "a course  
that leads inexorably to disaster." (Of course, I'd never draw such  
an inference; I'd just quote it and let the reader decide. The  
reference is: The Mirror of True Womanhood, A Book of Instruction for  
Women in the World, 2nd Edition, Dublin, M. H. Gill and Son,  
"Reprinted from the Thirteenth American Edition." p. 136." Actually  
the question of the year is complicated because the Google Books  
image is from an 1883 edition, but the 1883 edition says it's from  
the Thirteenth American Edition, which was published in 1878. Whether  
it was in earlier editions I don't know. But it's older than 1951 and  
by golly it's older than 1909.

And I found an 1837 reference that does not actually use the phrase  
"slippery slope," but does say: "There are points where the Christian  
must always stand on guard. His danger is seldom found in gross  
offenses... but in small indulgences, and weak compliances, where  
conscience rather doubts, than condemns. These gradually draw him  
nearer and nearer to the world, till the line of separation is lost.  
Many a Christian has glided down this slope to perdition." Osler,  
Edward (1837), Church and King," Smith, Elder and Co., London, p. 13