[teampractices] IT projects almost as prone to overruns as the Olympics

[Grace Gellerman]

Thanks, Joel!

For more real world examples see the wikipedia entry for the Planning
Fallacy <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy>.


On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 1:15 PM, Kevin Smith <ksmith at wikimedia.org> wrote:

> I would also be interested in cost overrun comparisons with other
> *international* projects. I mean, that has to add to the confusion and
> unpredictability, right?
>
> The chunnel came in at 80% over budget, according to wikipedia.
>
>
> Kevin Smith
> Agile Coach, Wikimedia Foundation
>
>
> On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:33 AM, Arthur Richards <arichards at wikimedia.org
> > wrote:
>
>> Fascinating, Joel, thanks for the share!
>>
>> On Mon, Aug 15, 2016 at 11:24 AM, Joel Aufrecht <jaufrecht at wikimedia.org>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> The Olympic Games average 156 percent cost overruns, outdistancing all
>>>> other types of megaprojects. For comparison, road projects average overruns
>>>> of 20 percent; bridges and tunnels 34 percent; energy projects 36 percent;
>>>> rail projects 45 percent; dams 90 percent and IT projects 107 percent.
>>>>
>>>
>>> (according to The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun at
>>> the Game <http://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.04484v1.pdf>)
>>>
>>> (source
>>> <http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hosting-the-olympics-is-a-terrible-investment/>
>>> )
>>>
>>
>> ​Worth noting that the study looked ONLY at sports-related costs and
>> excluded larger projects (eg infrastructure):
>>
>> The numbers cover the period 1960-2016 and include only sports-related
>>> costs, i.e., wider capital costs for general infrastructure, which are
>>> often larger than sports-related costs, have been excluded.​
>>
>>
>> ​I am curious what the average overruns would like if all
>> Olympics-related costs (eg infrastructure, etc) were included.
>>
>> --
>> Arthur Richards
>> Sr. Agile Coach: Organizational Collaboration
>> Team Practices Group
>> <https://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Team_Practices_Group>
>> [[User:Awjrichards]]
>> IRC: awjr
>> +1-415-839-6885 x6687
>>
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>>
>
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