[Foundation-l] Iran?

[Tomasz Ganicz]

2009/6/20 Ray Saintonge <saintonge at telus.net>:
> Milos Rancic wrote:
>> I've got the first report. There are no information that something
>> happened to any Wikimedian.
>>
>> Take a look at [1]. I don't expect bigger scale problems in Iran, but
>> not just because of that analysis. Except theocratic structures,
>> preset situation in Iran reminds me a lot to the situation in Serbia
>> during late period of Milosevic. State structures without connection
>> to reality have to reform themselves or they'll be replaced.
>> Fortunately, [ordinary] Iranians don't want war because still fresh
>> memories to war between Iraq and Iran. The situation was similar in
>> 2000 in Serbia.
>>
>> [1] - http://www.ted.com/talks/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future.html
>>
> Nuclear weaponry in Iran may a concern to powerful western countries,
> but I don't see it as being a major factor in the country's internal
> politics.
>  While there may very well have been widespread fraud, that alone
> wouldn't be enough to explain away a 29 percentage point spread.  A
> strong line of national security scare-mongering is always good source
> of votes in the less educated parts of a country. We hear a lot about
> what is happening in Tehran, but very little about the rest of the country.
>

Believe me that it is possibly to fraud an election and shift the real
results completely :-) History knows many of such examples.

See for example:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_people%27s_referendum,_1946

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_general_election,_1946

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_Vietnam_referendum,_1955

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_fraud

I don't know if it happened in Iran or not - I think we will know it
for sure not eariler that 50 years from know, or maybe even never...

-- 
Tomek "Polimerek" Ganicz
http://pl.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Polimerek
http://www.ganicz.pl/poli/
http://www.ptchem.lodz.pl/en/TomaszGanicz.html