[Foundation-l] Analysis of lists statistics: community in decline

[Milos Rancic]

At the page [1] you may see complete data for a number of lists (of
bigger projects). Below this email is my analysis of data.

In brief, you may read inside of the analysis:
* Almost all lists are in decrease.
* Decrease varies between rare significant, but not high decreases and
rare dead lists. In other words, the most of the lists are in
significant decrease: Some of them since 2005, more of since
2007-2008.

Positive and "positive" trends:
* Technical lists show the smallest amount of decrease.
* Two [of analyzed] lists -- textbook-l and wikija-l -- show
*increase* of traffic! It would be good to analyze why it is so. Maybe
they have the answer to our problem: increasing of list traffic
usually means that community is increasing. (Or they are just in the
earlier phase, which means that they will show decrease of traffic
during the next year or two.)

"Trivia":
* Russian Wikipedians don't use WMF based lists for their
communication. (Or they don't use mailing lists at all, which seems to
me less possible.)
* Portuguese list doesn't have extension "-l" in the name.

So, some numbers are analyzed. Unlike simple claims like "foundation-l
traffic decreased", we have now significant enough data: decrease is
systematic, not only at one list and in amount of emails, but on
almost all of [analyzed, bigger] lists and in amount of new and active
participants. This shows very well that our community and our
communities are not so alive like they had been in the past.

And to be more clear. If we take a look at traffic at this list for
Octobers 2006-2008, we may see that the approximation of decline is
20% for the first year and 50% for the second. If this trend
continues, we will have ~175 emails during the next October, ~50
during October 2010, ~10 during October 2011. According to the
statistics of other lists -- 10 emails during October means no emails
between June and September. This means that foundation-l will be in
2012 at the position where wikiquote-l is no (de facto dead list).

And some good news:
* We have enough time to change things.
* If content projects would become history, MediaWiki would be alive
for some more time.

The question is: Do we have ideas how to make things better?

[1] - http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Problems/List/Low_activity_on_mailing_lists

* * *

== Analysis: Data interpretation ==

=== General lists ===

* Communication on all general lists are decreasing. Technical lists
(wikitech-l and mediawiki-l) are significantly better than general
non-technical list foundation-l. Out of other particular cases,
technical lists stays the best.

=== Project lists ===

* commons-l has very high decrease in traffic, while decreases in
number of new and active participants are significant, while not so
high.
* textbook-l (Wikibooks list) is one of the rare examples which is not
in decreasing!
* wikimediameta-l increases, while it is a very young list, which
should take community part of discussion from foundation-l list.
However, increase on this list is not significant enough to cover (at
least, partially) decrease at foundation-l.
* wikinews-l: Similarly to foundation-l -- significant decrease.
* wikipedia-l: It shows very high decrease in all aspects. During the
first years it was used as the main list, including for Wikipedia in
English. Decrease 2002-2003 shows moving Wikipedia in English issues
to the language specific list -- wikien-l. Decrease 2005-2006 probably
shows moving general issues to foundation-l. However, 2006-2008
doesn't have any obvious reason and it follows the similar decrease on
the foundation-l list.
* wikiquote-l: While it was not a very active list ever, this list is
de facto dead from June 2008.
* wikisource-l: While it was not a very active list ever, it shows
''not'' significant decrease during 2008.
* wikispecies-l: This list was not significantly active ever and
conclusions about time line of its activity can't be made.
* wiktionary-l: The list was in decrease during 2006 and again between
mid-2007 and present (October 2008).

=== Per language Wikipedias ===

* wikide-l: In constant decrease since the first half of 2005.
* wikien-l: In decrease since the beginning of 2008.
* wikies-l: In increase from the second part of 2006 and during 2007,
but in decrease during 2008; the second part 2008 has less traffic
than the second part of 2006.
* wikifr-l: In constant decrease since the end of 2005.
* wikiit-l: In constant decrease since the beginning of 2007.
* wikija-l: The only analyzed Wikipedia list which shows increase of
traffic -- since the beginning of 2006.
* wikipl-l: In constant decrease since the second half of 2005.
* wikipt: While it was never a very active list, it is almost dead (3
emails for October 2008, no emails between June and September).
* wikiru-l: Data shows that the community around Wikipedia in Russian
doesn't use wikiru-l as their mailing list.
* wikizh-l: In constant decrease since the second half of 2006.