On Tue, Jul 14, 2009 at 10:07 AM, Ian Woollard<ian.woollard(a)gmail.com> wrote:
It's looking to me like 3.5 million is about the plateau, since the
curve is bang on that, but we might make 4 million *eventually*.
I don't think the bell-shaped articles/day curve of the logistic model
is a good description of the trends. Since article creation peaked in
2007, the falloff in article creation has been much slower than than
ramp-up. Rather than falling back to close to zero articles/day over
the next 5 years or so (as the logistic model predicts), it looks like
we're heading to an asymptote of (I'm eyeballing it here) around 1000
articles/day. I expect 4 million articles a lot sooner than
The significant non-zero asymptote makes sense to me in terms of what
kinds of articles remain to be written:
*High-profile topics that aren't notable yet. The news generates a
steady stream of newly notable topics that a wide variety of people
want to write about.
*The vast pool of notable topics (tens of millions, according to some
back-of-the-envelope estimates that have made the rounds here before)
for which article creation rate is limited by the number of
Between those classes, I'd be surprised if yearly growth fell below
300,000 any time soon.