On Mon, Feb 16, 2009 at 2:10 PM, Thomas Dalton <thomas.dalton(a)gmail.com> wrote:
I've been following the CZ statistics page for
some time, and I get
the feeling that it doesn't matter because activity on CZ is shrinking
(even Sanger doesn't seem very active) and it will never reach a size
where anyone actually uses it. It's a fraction of the size of
Wikipedia at the same age (in terms of articles or total words) and
growth is slowing (whereas Wikipedia showed exponential growth at that
time). We could discuss why it failed but I think the real answer is
simply that Wikipedia is "good enough" so there is very little
interest in a new project doing the same thing (and which won't be
anywhere near as useful for several years, even with the more generous
assumptions).
I also have been following their stats page (as well as their forums),
and I agree with the fundamental issue: Wikipedia had the first mover
advantage, and has proved good enough for enough people to prevent any
serious competition.
However, I don't think we should think of Citizendium as having
failed. Certainly, it has failed to realize Sanger's and a few
others' hopes to be on its way to eclipsing Wikipedia. But CZ has a
fairly stable community; it's shrinking a little, but so is
Wikipedia's community. It's a free content project that is producing
some useful material, and some editors find it a nicer place to work
than Wikipedia. It's licensed CC-by-SA 3.0, which means it will be
compatible with Wikipedia soon. And a rather high proportion of
content is stuff that isn't present on Wikipedia. The anti-Wikipedia
ethos of the project has also waned as they've begun to sort out their
own identity beyond "Wikipedia with real names where experts have
power".
Sanger keeps claiming that they aren't growing simply because they
haven't yet gotten serious about recruitment. I don't find that
convincing, but it's not inconceivable that concerted efforts at
recruitment could result in another wave of growth or two (though
probably never exponential growth).
-Sage (User:Ragesoss)