On Tue, Nov 17, 2009 at 1:19 PM, Carcharoth <carcharothwp(a)googlemail.com> wrote:
On Tue, Nov 17, 2009 at 5:59 AM, Ian Woollard
On 14/07/2009, Sage Ross
On Tue, Jul 14, 2009 at 10:07 AM, Ian
It's looking to me like 3.5 million is about the plateau, since the
curve is bang on that, but we might make 4 million *eventually*.
I don't think the bell-shaped articles/day curve of the logistic model
is a good description of the trends. Since article creation peaked in
2007, the falloff in article creation has been much slower than than
ramp-up. Rather than falling back to close to zero articles/day over
the next 5 years or so (as the logistic model predicts), it looks like
we're heading to an asymptote of (I'm eyeballing it here) around 1000
articles/day. I expect 4 million articles a lot sooner than
We're already down to 1000/day growth on the unsmoothed graph as we
fall off one of the two biannual growth peaks.
Looks like the Wikipedia is still bang-on for 3.5 million articles.
As long as history doesn't come to an end, and new people keep getting
born and (annoyingly) becoming notable enough for a Wikipedia article,
there will always be a need for new articles.
There are even articles that were deleted without prejudice before,
that *gasp* happen to do gain notability! (I happened to look over my
own deletion logs yesterday, and a handfull of articles that were (IMO
correctly) deleted without prejudice in the past, that are now decent