Insufficient data in epidemiological sources. Basically, we need fairly decent time series
incidence data over a few years in order to train the models; this isn’t available for
Zika, just case reports here and there.
The expert on our team is Ashlynn Daughton: “[T]here’s been a small amount of surveillance
of Zika
(
http://www.eurosurveillance.org/images/dynamic/ET/V19N02/V19N02.pdf). French polynesia
and other islands had an outbreak in 2013 and it sounds like there are *some* reports (pg.
50). There’s also sporadic mentions of imported Zika from travelers from Africa or Asia
(e.g. See pg 54). But there hasn’t been anything as systematic, or comprehensive as there
is now.”
HTH,
Reid
On Feb 19, 2016, at 10:29 AM, Dan Andreescu
<dandreescu@wikimedia.org<mailto:dandreescu@wikimedia.org>> wrote:
Thanks, Reid. When you say there's insufficient data history, do you mean in other
sources? Zika was discovered in 1947 and the wiki page for it was built in 2009. We have
high quality geolocated data since May 2015.
I'm still doing research (I admit the distractions at the foundation have gotten in
the way, I apologize for that). I hope to get back to it with renewed force this
weekend.
On Fri, Feb 19, 2016 at 11:30 AM, Priedhorsky, Reid
<reidpr@lanl.gov<mailto:reidpr@lanl.gov>> wrote:
We do have more work in progress to extend the 2014 paper, in particular to mosquito-borne
diseases in a Spanish-speaking country, though not Zika because there is insufficient data
history.
I appreciate the pointer. Are there any specific questions folks would like me to address
in this thread?
Thanks,
Reid
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