Several theories:
1) I guess this now reflects reversions/deletions of edits?
2) We purge data collected before a certain date

I suspect the former?

On Wed, Nov 27, 2013 at 11:26 AM, Kenan Wang <kwang@wikimedia.org> wrote:
> Hey everyone. The monthly successful edits graph no longer reflects a drop
> in edits between August and September...
>
> Is it possible that we had data issues before that were causing us to see an
> issue that wasn't there?
>
> OR
>
> Is there some sort of data issue now that is causing us to be missing data
> that we used to be able to see?
>
>
> On Thu, Oct 17, 2013 at 3:27 PM, Arthur Richards <arichards@wikimedia.org>
> wrote:
>>
>> I guess it's tough to draw a baseline considering we only have a couple
>> months worth of data - but perhaps a good metric for our goal is returning
>> to or exceeding our peak?
>>
>>
>> On Thu, Oct 17, 2013 at 1:52 PM, Kenan Wang <kwang@wikimedia.org> wrote:
>>>
>>> Thanks to Juliusz we now have a graph of mobile editors that became
>>> active editors. We can see a drop in the number of editors that became
>>> active:
>>>
>>> http://mobile-reportcard.wmflabs.org/graphs/edits-monthly-5plus-editors
>>>
>>>
>>> On Tue, Oct 15, 2013 at 2:31 PM, Kenan Wang <kwang@wikimedia.org> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Well, looks like IndiaSummer95 got blocked today... but I've reached out
>>>> to Nick1372 and KurtWags3 via their user talk pages.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 9:43 PM, Jon Robson <jrobson@wikimedia.org>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> I hope this is not too stalker-y but I think it is interesting.
>>>>>
>>>>> I looked briefly at the top 5 editors for both August [A] and
>>>>> September [B], the most prolific editor "Indiasummer95", 520 days
>>>>> registered, [1] made 2908 edits in August but only 694 in September.
>>>>> The second most profilic editor "La Avatar Korra", registered for 88
>>>>> days [2] in September made 954 edits in August but only 379 in
>>>>> September. Number 3, Nick1372, member for 306d days [3] had 762 edits
>>>>> in August but only 445 in September, #4 was 이민혁, registered for 70
>>>>> days, [4] (558 rising to 623), and #5 KurtWags3, registered for 84
>>>>> days [5] (520 dropping to 102)
>>>>>
>>>>> Out of these Indiasummer95 was the most interesting so I looked at the
>>>>> edits per page for August [C]:
>>>>> Tell_Mama_UK 66
>>>>> Abel_Xavier 60
>>>>> Melilla 56
>>>>> Vitória_S.C. 44
>>>>> History_of_Roman_Catholicism_in_Portugal 40
>>>>> Knattspyrnufélag_Reykjavíkur 40
>>>>> Robot_Wars_(TV_series) 38
>>>>> F.C._Paços_de_Ferreira 32
>>>>> Symbols_of_Portugal 32
>>>>> Politics_of_Toledo_(Spain) 32
>>>>>
>>>>> The same in September [D]:
>>>>> Alfonso_I_of_Asturias 21
>>>>> Indiasummer95 13
>>>>> Vitālijs_Astafjevs 12
>>>>> A.C._Perugia_Calcio 10
>>>>> Morangos_com_Açúcar 9
>>>>> Azad_Ali 9
>>>>> Million_Muslim_March 8
>>>>> Islam_in_the_Czech_Republic 7
>>>>> Szilárd_Németh 7
>>>>> Matteo_Ferrari 6
>>>>>
>>>>> Inspecting closing on the dates of his/her edits to Tell_Mama_UK (page
>>>>> id 39683645) [E]
>>>>> 2013-08-11 4
>>>>> 2013-08-15 56
>>>>> 2013-08-16 6
>>>>>
>>>>> However if I look at the history page I don't see 56 edits from
>>>>> him/her on that page (I count 36 total on the entire page):
>>>>>
>>>>> https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Tell_Mama_UK&action=history
>>>>>
>>>>> So.. that makes me wonder...
>>>>> 1) was something broken around 15th August in EventLogging - were we
>>>>> reporting successes that weren't and thus the data is skewed (e.g.
>>>>> AbuseFilter related) ? Is there a logical explanation for this or is
>>>>> something indeed weird - can anyone suggest a reason?
>>>>> 2) Is this people getting used to the editor/wikitext - making lots of
>>>>> mistakes early on and then getting better at using it?
>>>>> 3) Is it indeed seasonal / people getting bored after initial
>>>>> excitement of editing?
>>>>>
>>>>> [1]
>>>>> https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:UserProfile/Indiasummer95?mobileaction=beta
>>>>> [2]
>>>>> https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:UserProfile/La%20Avatar%20Korra?mobileaction=beta
>>>>> [3]
>>>>> https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:UserProfile/Nick1372?mobileaction=beta
>>>>> [4]
>>>>> https://ko.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/특수기능:UserProfile/이민혁?mobileaction=beta
>>>>> [5]
>>>>> https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:UserProfile/KurtWags3?mobileaction=beta
>>>>>
>>>>> [A] SELECT  event_username, count(*) from MobileWebEditing_5644223
>>>>> where event_action = 'success' and timestamp LIKE '201308%' group by
>>>>> event_username
>>>>> [B] SELECT  event_username, count(*) from MobileWebEditing_5644223
>>>>> where event_action = 'success' and timestamp LIKE '201309%' group by
>>>>> event_username
>>>>> [C]   SELECT enwiki.page.page_title, count(*) from
>>>>> MobileWebEditing_5644223 INNER JOIN enwiki.page on enwiki.page.page_id
>>>>> = event_pageId where wiki = 'enwiki' and event_action = 'success' and
>>>>> event_userName = 'Indiasummer95' and timestamp LIKE '201308%' group by
>>>>> event_pageId
>>>>> [D]  SELECT enwiki.page.page_title, count(*) from
>>>>> MobileWebEditing_5644223 INNER JOIN enwiki.page on enwiki.page.page_id
>>>>> = event_pageId where wiki = 'enwiki' and event_action = 'success' and
>>>>> event_userName = 'Indiasummer95' and timestamp LIKE '201309%' group by
>>>>> event_pageId
>>>>> [E]  SELECT DATE(timestamp), count(*) from MobileWebEditing_5644223
>>>>> where wiki = 'enwiki' and event_action = 'success' and event_userName
>>>>> = 'Indiasummer95' and timestamp LIKE '201308%' and event_pageId =
>>>>> 39683645 group by DATE(timestamp)
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 8:09 PM, Kenan Wang <kwang@wikimedia.org> wrote:
>>>>> > I'll try to block out some time to look at creating those two graphs
>>>>> > tomorrow. Let me know if you want to help.
>>>>> >
>>>>> >
>>>>> > On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 8:09 PM, Kenan Wang <kwang@wikimedia.org>
>>>>> > wrote:
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> Adding Dario to this thread.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> So the main question is why is the number of edits going down from
>>>>> >> august
>>>>> >> to september while the number of unique editors is going up?
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> Few theories:
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> 1) Problem with data - seems unlikely per Jon's analysis. Also, both
>>>>> >> numbers come from the same data source.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> 2) Change in the makeup of editors - not conclusive from the data
>>>>> >> but it
>>>>> >> seems that the number of edits from new editors and experienced
>>>>> >> editors are
>>>>> >> following the same general pattern.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> 3) Change in edits per session - no analysis done towards this yet.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> I'd like to take a look at:
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> 1) a daily graph over the same two month period on unique daily
>>>>> >> editors
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> 2) a daily graph of edits per session  over the same two month
>>>>> >> period
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> Few things to keep in mind:
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> -It seems that there is not a seasonality difference in desktop
>>>>> >> edits, but
>>>>> >> as pointed out by Steven Walling it's not necessarily true that
>>>>> >> desktop
>>>>> >> edits and mobile edits will follow the same seasonality patterns.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> -Seasonality also wouldn't account for the skew between unique
>>>>> >> editors and
>>>>> >> raw edits.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> -This effect seems fairly centered on enwiki, however mobile captcha
>>>>> >> support was introduced and may affect numbers for other projects in
>>>>> >> some off
>>>>> >> setting fashion
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> -The spike in number of edits occurs roughly between Aug 12 - 30,
>>>>> >> particularly 23-30. In that time section level editing was
>>>>> >> introduced on
>>>>> >> August 27.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 6:08 PM, Jon Robson <jrobson@wikimedia.org>
>>>>> >> wrote:
>>>>> >>>
>>>>> >>> If you look at my graphs this theory doesn't seem to hold....
>>>>> >>>
>>>>> >>> On 9 Oct 2013 12:24, "Tomasz Finc" <tfinc@wikimedia.org> wrote:
>>>>> >>>>
>>>>> >>>> On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 9:32 AM, Maryana Pinchuk
>>>>> >>>> <mpinchuk@wikimedia.org>
>>>>> >>>> wrote:
>>>>> >>>> > One theory: most of our enwiki power users tried mobile editing
>>>>> >>>> > early
>>>>> >>>> > on and
>>>>> >>>> > made their customarily high number of edits per session in
>>>>> >>>> > August, but
>>>>> >>>> > they
>>>>> >>>> > weren't retained on mobile and didn't stick around through
>>>>> >>>> > September.
>>>>> >>>> > Meanwhile, new users continue to flood in, but they only make an
>>>>> >>>> > edit
>>>>> >>>> > or two
>>>>> >>>> > and leave. If this is the case, it makes a strong argument for
>>>>> >>>> > working
>>>>> >>>> > on
>>>>> >>>> > things like mobile GettingStarted/KeepGoing to bump up early
>>>>> >>>> > engagement for
>>>>> >>>> > newbies, and article histories/contrib views and other power
>>>>> >>>> > user
>>>>> >>>> > features
>>>>> >>>> > for oldbies :)
>>>>> >>>>
>>>>> >>>> This could be an interesting theory. Kenan, what do you think
>>>>> >>>> about
>>>>> >>>> reaching out to a handful of those editors that dropped and ask
>>>>> >>>> them
>>>>> >>>> why?
>>>>> >>>>
>>>>> >>>> --tomasz
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> --
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> Kenan Wang
>>>>> >> Product Manager, Mobile
>>>>> >> Wikimedia Foundation
>>>>> >
>>>>> >
>>>>> >
>>>>> >
>>>>> > --
>>>>> >
>>>>> > Kenan Wang
>>>>> > Product Manager, Mobile
>>>>> > Wikimedia Foundation
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>>
>>>> Kenan Wang
>>>> Product Manager, Mobile
>>>> Wikimedia Foundation
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>>
>>> Kenan Wang
>>> Product Manager, Mobile
>>> Wikimedia Foundation
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> Arthur Richards
>> Software Engineer, Mobile
>> [[User:Awjrichards]]
>> IRC: awjr
>> +1-415-839-6885 x6687
>
>
>
>
> --
>
> Kenan Wang
> Product Manager, Mobile
> Wikimedia Foundation