[WikiEN-l] Featured churn

[Ian Woollard]

On 14/07/2009, Sage Ross <ragesoss+wikipedia at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Tue, Jul 14, 2009 at 10:07 AM, Ian Woollard<ian.woollard at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>>
>> It's looking to me like 3.5 million is about the plateau, since the
>> curve is bang on that, but we might make 4 million *eventually*.
>>
>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Modelling_Wikipedia%27s_growth#Logistic_model_for_growth_in_article_count_of_Wikipedia
>>
>
> I don't think the bell-shaped articles/day curve of the logistic model
> is a good description of the trends.  Since article creation peaked in
> 2007, the falloff in article creation has been much slower than than
> ramp-up.  Rather than falling back to close to zero articles/day over
> the next 5 years or so (as the logistic model predicts), it looks like
> we're heading to an asymptote of (I'm eyeballing it here) around 1000
> articles/day.  I expect 4 million articles a lot sooner than
> *eventually*.  ;)

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Enwikipediagrowth.PNG

We're already down to 1000/day growth on the unsmoothed graph as we
fall off one of the two biannual growth peaks.

Looks like the Wikipedia is still bang-on for 3.5 million articles.

> -Sage

-- 
-Ian Woollard