On 27 Oct 2004, at 14:28, Ray Saintonge wrote:
In the course of a Canadian Broadcating Corporation
program on the US
election it reported on a survey of whom Canadians would vote for if
they could. 80% favored Kerry. That's an astounding ratio, but I
suspect that a similar result would be found in many countries.
You bet it is:
http://www.iht.com/articles/537873.html
Try running around with a Kerry T-shirt in Germany. Some people will
actually give you stern looks -- not because they're against Kerry, but
because they've started to despise the entire U.S. during Dubya's
tenure. Where I currently live (in Germany), there essentially are two
opposing groups: The better informed ones (who love Kerry), and the
less well informed ones (who now just hate all of the U.S., and
everything about it, including the U.S. flag on Kerry T-shirts). I have
yet to meet ANY Bush supporting Germans. If they exist.
The damage that Bush has done to the reputation of the
United States
may take at least a generation to repair.
That's not what frightens me most.
What frightens me most is the spectre of another 9/11:
George Bush senior's (and Reagan's) policies sow the seeds for 9/11 and
now Bush junior is committing the very same political mortal sins (only
this time they're actually raised to the power of n). Al Qaeda couldn't
be happier. Bush junior has guaranteed them a steady stream of new
recruits for generations to come. Including recruits from countries
where al Qaeda didn't previously exist, such as Iraq.
Ok, considering that this story was hardly reported in the U.S. --
here's a quick recap:
During the Kuwait crisis, the Bush senior administration relayed
satellite photos to the Saudis. The satellite photos reportedly showed
Saddam amassing troops on the Iraqi-Saudi border, supposedly on the
verge of invading Saudi Arabia. The only trouble is the troops were
just not there. The satellite photos were likely doctored. Even today,
traces of German WWII troop movements (under "desert fox" Erich Rommel)
can still be seen from space. However only 14 years later there is no
such trace from Saddams army on the Iraqi-Saudi border. Also, Russian
satellite photographs were made publicly available (in the U.S. only
one (regional) newspaper printed them). The Russian photos showed NO
Iraqi troops on said border. Nevertheless the photographs had their
desired effect -- shortly afterwards, the Saudis allowed U.S. troops
into their country.
Granted, we don't know if Bush tricked the Saudi government with the
above satellite photos. The Saudi government might have been in on the
deal and might have used this together with the U.S. to sway the Saudi
public's opinion. On the other hand, it's intriguing that the U.S. have
only very recently (and rather silently) started withdrawing from Saudi
-- and that withdrawal was AFTER the 9/11 attacks in which Saudi
nationals had a hand. (Conspiracy theories may however not be
warranted. Maybe the way the U.S. military is overstretched has more to
do with the withdrawal.)
Now, the fact that the Saudis allowed U.S. troops into their country in
the early nineties -- this totally shocked and outraged an affluent
Saudi, the former "Afghanistan resistance fighter" (CIA trained in that
context) Osama bin Laden.
Bin Laden (an extreme Islamist religious fundamentalist) had at a time
been moderately pro-U.S. He had been grateful for the U.S. help in
bringing the Taliban to power in Afghanistan (and kicking the Soviets
out of there, which was the reason why Reagan/Bush senior were so happy
to deal with, support and install the Taliban). Bin Laden became
opposed to the U.S. over U.S. support of Israel's continued attacks
against Palestinian civilians. Because of these Israeli attacks, bin
Laden grew sympathetic to the POV of Palestinian terrorists and suicide
bombers. However, his attitude and views really changed when U.S.
troops entered Saudi. Bin Laden (arguably not a peaceful man before
either) got totally, murderously outraged by this -- in his eyes the
U.S. troop presence amounted to "infidels" desecrating Islam's holy
land. And not just infidels but actual infidel soldiers!
Including--gosh--WOMEN SOLDIERS!! And not through an invasion but
actually ''with the consent'' of the Saudi government. Bin Laden
started hating the Saudi government and the U.S. (see
http://news.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/cta/progs/panorama/01/laden_clip2.ram --
Real player format). He started to openly campaign against the Saudi
government and the U.S. This led to him getting ousted from Saudi (and
getting denied some or most of his money at that stage). He next
settled in Sudan and started to build a radical terrorist organization,
both from scratch and by using and building on his existing contacts
and expertise (the expertise again was in part obtained through his CIA
training). Al Qaeda started to grow and operate (African U.S. embassy
bombings, U.S. Cole, etc.). NB: Perhaps surprisingly al Qaeda was less
funded by bin Laden's personal fortune (see above) than by individual
follower's contributions. Sure, Clinton aggressively pursued bin Laden,
ordered him killed and bombed bin Laden's later Afghanistan hideouts
with cruise missles, but Clinton didn't manage to take him out.
However, bin Laden didn't strike on U.S. soil during Clinton's watch
either.
Bush senior probably could not have foreseen that this particular
nutcase extremist bin Laden was to turn terrorist over U.S. troops
moving into Saudi. BUT he could have and should have been aware of and
understood the local attitudes and sensitivities. And from that it's
not rocket science to figure out that if you're royally pissing off a
fair share of the local populace, then among that populace there are
bound to be some nutcases who will simply flip. So while I don't think
that Bush senior is personally, directly to blame for 9/11, there
nevertheless is a clear connection between his administration's
policies and the 9/11 attacks. With slightly more intelligent policies
and slightly more truthful diplomacy I think at least bin Laden would
not have mutated into the maniacal terrorist mastermind he has become
and that tells me that there is a fair chance that without the events
on Bush senior's watch 9/11 would not have happened.
To finally come to my main point:
There is little historical parallel to the extent and way Bush junior
now has pissed of and continues to piss off sh*tloads of people in the
Arab world. Al Qaeda recruitment is up, and that's very clearly thanks
to Bush jr. This could easily have been avoided.
What really frightens me then is this:
As the bin Laden example has again demonstrated, mercilessly murderous
terrorists have a long, long memory. Terrorism has a rather long
incubation period. Worse, there is little chance of a cure once an
infection has taken place. I hate to say it, but I suspect that
regardless of how the election turns out, the enormity of Bush's
actions has already ensured that the U.S. will see several further
9/11s. I have high hopes about the determination and skill of the
current opposition to turn things around and defuse a great many future
terrorist threats. But I still fear that given what the current
administration has already done, the point of no return may already be
past for quite a few future terrorists and it may no longer be possible
to avoid all further attacks -- it may only be possible to reduce their
scale and frequency. And that's only '''if''' the two Johns
play their
cards right. And ''if'' America dumps the current incumbent. I hate to
think what'll happen if they don't.
No US president has been so widely reviled around the
world as the
current one.
No US president has been so widely off the mark as regards world
politics as the current one.
The opportunities which the 9/11 tragedy afforded him
to improve
international co-operation he has turned into a disastrous legacy of
bitterness, hatred and resentment. The platitude about keeping
America strong does not win friends anywhere, because at anywhere law
applies equally to the ultra powerful.
To keep my observations on domestic policies short, the US has not
seen a comparable government since Harding.
Ec
-- ropers [[en:User:Ropers]]
www.ropersonline.com
PS: A quite informative bin Laden profile:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/155236.stm